So, what is happening next? We might have a small pull back, and then continue to fall. If the does break out to the downside, the target is likely to be $6000. The sell off seems to be strong and I can't see much support between $6000-$8000. Plus, the also suggests $6000 is the next target. Of course, if there is a major good news that change the sentiment, then I would think otherwise.
One thing I do want to reinforce is that we have never break out of the . Many people got fooled and thought that the was broken. It never did! And in that regard, why would you think the pump yesterday was not a bull trap, especially after the FUDs on SEC, Binance hack & Mt Gox. Although some of you might say that the FUDs are just FUD, the Binance hack was not really a hack, Nobuaki can no longer sell his BTC .... It does not matter. What does matter is the confidence level has dropped significantly after the FUDs. Do you think the whales are going to use their money to pump BTC back up and even break up the downtrend channel?
I also want to mention, from a non TA perspective, that many of you jumped in the Crypto world in Dec because of the hype. Who do you think created the hype? The media or, the great whales? Regardless, many of you had no trading experience and was told that HODL is the best strategy. Do you think the whales are just going to let you HODL? No! They will try their best to take away your money from you. They will just keep making money by pumping and dumping at each level, until you can no longer HODL. Some of you even put in more money at each dip thinking that it is a bargain sell.
What I am seeing is that unless fresh money comes in, BTC will just keep falling, and drag all the altcoins down. With the current Cryptos market, I just don't see any recovery happening in the next few months. In fact, if you draw a long term , in log scale, since the beginning of 2015 and connect all the lows till 2017, you can see that the intersects the bottom of the current @ around $3000. I am not saying that BTC will ever drop to that level, but there is a high possibility given the status quo of the current Cryptos market.
Right now, we have a small bear flag, within a large bear flag. And right above we have 50EMA, 200EMA, and then the 'true' downtrend line. With all the resistance above and all the indicators currently showing bearish, I would be much more worry if BTC does go up instead of going down as it is quite likely just another bull trap. And if that does happen, the sell off could be detrimental and certainly not healthy for the whole Crypto market. If you still insist on trading BTC with this level of volatility, then wait for the break out.
The bears might try their best to break above the top of the downtrend line (in linear scale, in blue), but I doubt they will succeed as the volume for the bulls have been mostly below MA20 since the 10th March.
Also, the retrace of the downtrend yesterday hit at around the 1.414 retrace @ 7741 and then now retrace back to almost 1.0 retrace @ $8360. This retrace is normal in a downtrend.
The fate of BTC will be determined within the next 12 hours. Please watch out for the breakout of the bear flag.
The trend line suggests that a drop to $48 is possible but I would expect NEO to drop to around $53.4
Buying at certain support levels are a good idea, given that you can identify the support level correctly. Watch out for the RSI & MACD.