sebastian.seliga.7

Bitcoin #BTCUSD - pessimistic scenario is unfolding -50% ahead!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
After the BTCUSD             cryptocurrency price hit the technical support level at $ 12,450 and rebounded slightly from below, $ 11,150, the wave (4) triangle scenario was invalidated. If the increase in volume causes the level of $ 11,150 to be broken again, the next target level for the price is the level of $ 9060.

The market is still in the corrective wave (4), which means that there is still a wave (5) to be done.. Nevertheless, the wave (4) must end first.

Reverse from the level of $ 11,150 and break of the level of $ 12,450 means a longer and more extended horizontal wave correction (4) in progress.
交易开始: Almost there.
Now there is time for a correction in sub-wave (4) and then a final push down.
交易开始: Still one more wave to the downside possible, but please watch the level of $12,717. Any breakout higher means the bottom is in!
评论: Impulsive scenario invalidated. Alternative scenario in play. The fifth wave to the downside is canceled.
评论: Impulsive bullish scenario invalidated. The market still moves in three waves.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CxcPMGzc/
评论: $ Bitcoin $ BTCUSD
The wave (B) high was set exactly at 38% Fibo and the market dropped in the next five waves to $ 10.028. In order to continue the decrease in an impulsive way, the price cannot now break the level of local resistance at $ 11,100.
评论: BTCUSD is back in the channel as the 61% Fibo is providing the resistance. Too many scenarios right now, so the patience is needed.
The option for a new low is still possible as well.
Watch $13,052 level for a breakout.
交易开始: The best scenario currently is an alternative count, where the peak of wave 4 is at the level of $ 3,200. From there, BTCUSD will most likely be falling in the form of a 5-wrench (Ending Diagonal) and thus will break the $ 9,151 level.
Two inner sub-waves remained to the end of the wedge. The target for falls is the level of $ 8,600.
评论: The market violated the 161% Fibo extension of the wave A at the level of $8,600 and currently is testing the lower trendline dynamic support around the level of $8,000. If this level will not make Bitcoin to bounce towards the level of $9,100 then the next projected target is seen at the level of $6,742. The overall complex corrective cycle looks completed anyway or is very close to termination.
Polecany broker:
https://fx88.com/pl/trading/accounts/create-an-fx88-profile?referrer=A2578
My -0.236 algo target is @ $7093.5
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great work dude..
do u see btc still falling?
+1 回复
thanks for excellent work...can you please update BCHUSD chart?
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“...the price cannot now break the level of local resistance at $ 11,100.”

My 4 hr chart is telling me that the high wick of a candle touched 11,370 about 8 hours ago. So your 11,000 has been pierced. However, that might not qualify as a new trend. What level of trading & time frames do you consider the criteria needs to adhere to in order to consider a fresh trend is in play? Some people say you need consistent trading above or below a particular mark. Well, you can have consistent trading on a 15 minute chart that has no bearing on a daily chart. Your thoughts?
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MaxBlue MaxBlue
@MaxBlue, I forgot to mention... I use BTC/USD:Coinbase not Bitstamp so the price I see is not the price you see. Nevertheless, the question is independent of the exchange and pertains to general TA interpretation.
Cheers!
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You lost me.....
1/20 cancel downside scenario
1/21 bullish scenario invalid
Are we drifting, getting whipsawed (up - down - up -down)?
+1 回复
@MaxBlue, I'm quite lost as well, which means - the market does not know what it wants. So do I when I'm counting the corrective cycles.
+1 回复
WilliamVan sebastian.seliga.7
@sebastian.seliga.7, To my opinion price is bouncing or getting squeezed between 9K and 12 K. begin of February we should see a clear trend.
Since lots of volume was withdrawn, price bounced off at 9.5K to now dance with 10K and the big money still needs to come, I believe price will go up.


Right now there is an obvious demand zone around 9K-10k absorbing (still) panic sellers.
the optimists buyers are pushed back at the the 12K zone.

It's not the time to trade now, but wait. unless you love swingtrading between this zone.

If price drops below 8K go short.
If price goes above 14.5K go long



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Spaceballs WilliamVan
@WilliamVan, "go short" means sell ?! So you think if it goes below 8k, it means it will go even lower?
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WilliamVan Spaceballs
@Spaceballs, Yes Spaceballs, it means sell. IF it goes below, I believe it's a save trade to execute.
However, I'm rather convinced bearmarket is over and we are in the transition to a bullmarket taking us up to ATH.
Again, confirmation, to my opinion, is at 14.5K which is to be expected somewhere next month

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