2/12/18: Short Entry (8800) Target (5000) Stop loss @ 9500 <Possible bear trap>
Logic --> BTC is in a LT downtrend, consistently fallen and bounced off key support and fib levels after brief capitulation of about a week or so. Afterward, the volume increases to the downside until it reaches the next support or fib level. Typically the falls are ~2 standard deviations (stdevs) (~$2120 *2 = $4240) and it recovers usually a little more than 1 stdev before falling again.
Logic --> BTC is in a LT downtrend, consistently fallen and bounced off key support and fib levels after brief capitulation of about a week or so. Afterward, the volume increases to the downside until it reaches the next support or fib level. Typically the falls are ~2 standard deviations (stdevs) (~$2120 *2 = $4240) and it recovers usually a little more than 1 stdev before falling again.
评论:
(2/21/2018): timing was wrong for this market accumulation. I was about one week too early. I think my original hypotheses have been disproven by the market action recently. The bias of the market has adjusted higher for the time being. I staying out of btc until the market further reveals its intention.