BTC/USD - 2/12/2018

193 3
2/12/18: Short Entry (8800) Target (5000) Stop loss @ 9500 <Possible bear trap>
Logic --> BTC is in a LT downtrend, consistently fallen and bounced off key support and fib levels after brief capitulation of about a week or so. Afterward, the volume increases to the downside until it reaches the next support or fib level. Typically the falls are ~2 standard deviations (stdevs) (~$2120 *2 = $4240) and it recovers usually a little more than 1 stdev before falling again.
评论: (2/21/2018): timing was wrong for this market accumulation. I was about one week too early. I think my original hypotheses have been disproven by the market action recently. The bias of the market has adjusted higher for the time being. I staying out of btc until the market further reveals its intention.
2/14/2018 (3:26pm EST): curious to see when and how much the price jump to 10k will consolidate. I suspect it will consolidate to 9000-9500 based upon short term being overbought. small short position just for curiosity. after 9000ish mark i expect it to trade sideways for awhile.
2/14/18 (11:57am): stopped out. The bounce ran longer and higher than anticipated. It appears majority of the cryptos are trying to form a breakout channel. Tough to tell with the light volume. Will wait and re-assess.
Would be total crazy to short btc now , cause nobody wants to sell after the metting in the USA senate last week. Plus Chinese new year up next. Its going one way and thats up
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