A quick thought that came to me lately was that the BTC issuance halving is quite a relevant event in the Bitcoin market cycle, so why not try to estimate good, long term buy opportunities based on this. Halving is the event when mined BTC blocks reward gets cut into half, and our next halving is on ~2020.05.30.
Looking back, we can notice that there is a lower low 370 and 318 days before the previous halvings, which is caused by a steep decline(47.7% in 2012, and 37.96% in 2016).
Based on this simple comparison, for most of the future hodlers, for people who don't want to put up with a bear market, and for longer term investors, my suggestion is simple: Look for good entry price, after 2019.05.26, more probably even after 2019.07.17, after as you see another steep decline of 45-35%(this time a more credible ~25%), BTFD!
Notable is that there is huge 2/4 day volume that kick starts the bull run, but by then we have missed some(75-150%/200%) of the movement from the low, and this can mean the difference between 20x or 10X gains in the next bull run.
Coincidentally, these months, after 2019.07.17 also are close to the ending of the 20 months bear market, forecasted by @IvanLabrie, with Time@mode method(around 08/09.2019).
Best of luck out there in this bear market! Zoltan Balogh
PS.: Don't pay much attention to the prices on the chart. What I tried to achieve is to identify good entry price based on events, not tied to a certain price.
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And the latest analysis from Ivan. Take a look at the update with the 2M chart.
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It looks like other, relevant fundamental events are also lining up for this buy opportunity as we are getting closer to this date. The MtGox coins are going to be released back on the market in (currently estimated) May-June 2019. There are 130-160k BTC and BCH to be returned. Keep an eye on this as it will be probably front-run by almost everyone, hoping to buy back lower.
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Lately we have seen talks about the hedge fund lockup periods expiring with bad performances y/y or so. This could cause the drop to the lower mode we saw in 2014-2015, between 180 and 320 USD.
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I mentioned in the previous comment that we have all this sell pressure, and that this could snowball down, once it gets going. We are dropping now to a lower mode, and probably there we will start the accumulation phase, once we get there. The Bakkt has been delayed to January, and wouldn't be surprised if it gets delayed again. Anyways, the bulls are out of narratives, why the price should go up, only strictly technical reasons, like support lines or being oversold. These could cause bounces, but I will not be in a hurry to catch knives. The sell pressure is really strong, and confidence in the crypto market is lost. We will slowly go into total radio silence, no more headlines, no more coverage, and we are alone in the dark with the bears... Be careful out there!
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Everyone stopped calling 3k as bottom, wants a retest, or calling for lower lows. Noone dares to mention targets of 6k, and whoever mentiones 20k will be crucified, is my guess. I believe we have found a bottom here, and we might not see sub 3k BTC ever again(unless protocol hack).
Good spot to start averaging in for long term holders. We might see another dip in May-June, as in my original analysis, but this here is supposed to be the highest financial opportunity.
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We are headding into the danger zone, where we saw in previous bull market starts a 35-45% correction. I have a feeling we will see a bigger one, above 35%, as this bull run has been insane! Keep an eye on market sentiment and behavious around those 35-45% retracement levels...
Nice work, man. Nice work. I'm also interested in the same kind of analysis, take a peak if you please:
FoxCharts
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Very interesting idea... Thank you for sharing :) But can we compare this young manipulated market in 2012-2016 with 2016-2020 ? I am not sure :/
ZoltanBalogh
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@Yo_Mama_Trades, From my point of view the market behaviors stay the same. Players change, but big players bring more sophisticated game plays to the table. Manipulation is still there, but its not done by whales this time, it's done by institutions who's purpose in life is exactly this. (Referring to Wall St. here.)
IvanLabrie
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This is one of the fundamental justifications for the technical signals we see with Time @ Mode.
Great chart!
ZoltanBalogh
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@IvanLabrie, Thanks Ivan, means a lot to me. :)
Lets hope we nail the bottom with an all in!
MrRenev
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You missed the bottom because you were over bearish and now you are salty you missed out. That's your own fault and not other authors fault. Deal with it newb ;)
@MrRenev, what are you talking about mate? Check my January 16 update, where below 3700 I call bottom. It's not precise bottom, but missed a 15% gain. But who cares about that when one trades big timeframes in crypto?
Thanks for checking out my post!
MrRenev
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@ZoltanBalogh, So. 3 months have passed. Did your brain have time to process the information I tried to send to it? Or do you still not get it and are confused "duh why he sed this me is no say dat"?
Lmao, I bet you are clueless and think I am "weird". Typical 2017 crypto investor. Go figure.
ZoltanBalogh
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@MrRenev, You're right, I do think you're "weird". But not because I'm clueless, but because you're delusional... As in 2019 Joker delusional.