Is BTC in a Major Degree Correction? Elliotticians pls weigh-in.
The chart above is a weekly chart of BTC 2.69% on a logrithmic scale. I have shown the wave counts to 4 degrees of trend. The key question is 'Are we in a higher degree (1 or 2) correction and headed well beneath 9,000; or are we going to hold the current low of 9222 ( BitStamp ) and make new highs?' My initial opinion is that it is possible that we are in a higher degree correction, but not confirmed. If the minor support trendline (highest of the 2 trendlines shown) is broken to the downside, then we are likely headed to one of the first 2 target zones shown, which would take us to the 5,500 area, which means we would be in a higher degree correction. If the minor support trendline holds, we are likely headed to new highs, and continutation of the trend. Note that at the 9222 low, the market has not yet shown enough weakness to hook back to the 1st previous high (as it has done on 5 of the 7 previous corrections, as annotated in purple).
I have shown the 19,666 top as a Degree 1 Wave 3; however, it is possible that Wave 3 extends, meaning the current top is just Degree 2 Wave 1 of Degree 1 Wave 3. If that were the case, the current correction would be a Wave 2 correction at Degree 2, which would still imply that we might reach the targets shown in the 5,500 area.
I do not profess that the wave counts shown are 100% correct or that they are even the 'best' counts. I would ask that anyone who has an educated opinion, especially those who would consider themselves Elliotticians, please weigh in on either i) improvements to the wave count and/or ii) evidence that you see as to whether or not we are in a higher degree correction.
If enough traders do weigh in, I will summarize the results and we'll see if there is a consensus one way or the other.
Since the minor trendline support is still holding, and since the market has not yet hooked back to the first previous high, I am labelling this analysis as 'Long.' However, for the reasons stated above, it is Long with Caution! It is quite possible that if we do rally back to the 19,600 highs, it might be another test back with lower lows then forthcoming in the possible higher degree correction. So if we make it back to the high, you want to see strength going through the 19,600 without a significant pullback back underneath 19,600.
I have shown the 19,666 top as a Degree 1 Wave 3; however, it is possible that Wave 3 extends, meaning the current top is just Degree 2 Wave 1 of Degree 1 Wave 3. If that were the case, the current correction would be a Wave 2 correction at Degree 2, which would still imply that we might reach the targets shown in the 5,500 area.
I do not profess that the wave counts shown are 100% correct or that they are even the 'best' counts. I would ask that anyone who has an educated opinion, especially those who would consider themselves Elliotticians, please weigh in on either i) improvements to the wave count and/or ii) evidence that you see as to whether or not we are in a higher degree correction.
If enough traders do weigh in, I will summarize the results and we'll see if there is a consensus one way or the other.
Since the minor trendline support is still holding, and since the market has not yet hooked back to the first previous high, I am labelling this analysis as 'Long.' However, for the reasons stated above, it is Long with Caution! It is quite possible that if we do rally back to the 19,600 highs, it might be another test back with lower lows then forthcoming in the possible higher degree correction. So if we make it back to the high, you want to see strength going through the 19,600 without a significant pullback back underneath 19,600.
评论:
The current top is labeled in the chart above as Wave 3 (Degree 1), or alternatively Wave 1 of Wave 3. Below is an excellent chart by suggesting that the alternative count (Wave 1 of Wave 3) is more correct.
评论:
Absolutely amazing chart and analysis!
交易开始:
The market is saying that BTC is a buy here, for the following reasons:
1. We have a repeating pattern in that we hit the 200 mov avg and the .882 retracement.
2. Sufficient volume to be a market bottom
3. The major coins are all up 18%-30%.
You can see the repeating pattern in the chart below. It is possible that the BTC will make one more low to the inner blue channel line shown in the chart. This potentially lower low would be in the 6600 area.
If you are inclined to buy now but want further confirmation, you can buy thru the high of the previous 240M bar (16:00) which is 9096.79 (BitStamp).
see
1. We have a repeating pattern in that we hit the 200 mov avg and the .882 retracement.
2. Sufficient volume to be a market bottom
3. The major coins are all up 18%-30%.
You can see the repeating pattern in the chart below. It is possible that the BTC will make one more low to the inner blue channel line shown in the chart. This potentially lower low would be in the 6600 area.
If you are inclined to buy now but want further confirmation, you can buy thru the high of the previous 240M bar (16:00) which is 9096.79 (BitStamp).
see
交易开始:
In the chart below, notice the similarities of the current correction off of 19666.00 and the correction off of 259.34 that started in April of 2013. I'll list them.
They each:
1. started off of the inner resistance channel line
2. found support at the 200 moving avg line
3. are 4 grid lines in length (so far)
4. made .882 corrections to the inner support channel lines.
If the similarities continue, then when the current correction is over, BTC would rally to the upper resistance channel line reaching the target of $100k - $110k.
The April 2013 correction was 4 grid lines in length and the correction lasted 12 weeks. The current correction has reached the same length (4 grid lines), but in 6 weeks. The market may simply just rally from the current low of 7625.25 (BitStamp), as it has already started to do. But more likely there will be either a testback after a few weeks of rally or sideways movement, or even one more push down to the inner blue support channel line, meaning a lower low which could reach the 6500 area. In any case, the rally towards the target area should either be on the way, or commence in six weeks or so after one more push down. Alt coins are rallying as well, so that's a good sign. In fact, Litecoin is already up over 70% from it's $100 low.
The rally into the 1163 high in Nov of 2013 which reached the upper channel resistance line was 9 grid lines in length and 21 weeks in time. Using those figures as a projection for the rally from our current correction low would take the market to the target shown in late July 2018.
They each:
1. started off of the inner resistance channel line
2. found support at the 200 moving avg line
3. are 4 grid lines in length (so far)
4. made .882 corrections to the inner support channel lines.
If the similarities continue, then when the current correction is over, BTC would rally to the upper resistance channel line reaching the target of $100k - $110k.
The April 2013 correction was 4 grid lines in length and the correction lasted 12 weeks. The current correction has reached the same length (4 grid lines), but in 6 weeks. The market may simply just rally from the current low of 7625.25 (BitStamp), as it has already started to do. But more likely there will be either a testback after a few weeks of rally or sideways movement, or even one more push down to the inner blue support channel line, meaning a lower low which could reach the 6500 area. In any case, the rally towards the target area should either be on the way, or commence in six weeks or so after one more push down. Alt coins are rallying as well, so that's a good sign. In fact, Litecoin is already up over 70% from it's $100 low.
The rally into the 1163 high in Nov of 2013 which reached the upper channel resistance line was 9 grid lines in length and 21 weeks in time. Using those figures as a projection for the rally from our current correction low would take the market to the target shown in late July 2018.
交易开始:
Yes, we are Long. However, Be Ready for Anything! So, if you have not, be sure to see:
交易开始:
The market has now taken out to the high side the weekly doji bar at the recent low of 5920.72. The following chart indicates the significance of the doji bar and the accompanying volume. On prior occurrences you can see that new highs were always made. Will new highs be made from here? Probably, but we still have not had a testback to the low and one may be coming from the upper channel resistane line, which is currently in the 12,600 area.