GramTooNoob
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Last Chance for Bull Resumption

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
The market has clearly complete its "correction" now, and we have actually touched the final 6.5k absolute zone. This here is a long position entry and buyers will try hard to absorb the sell off here, in order to resume the bull market in 2018. If you are very bull bias, you want to enter here and potentially ride it all the way to 28k on wave 5.

From a wave perspective, wave 5 can fail to take off if fundamentals are all bad but we haven't reach that stage yet. So really just banking on that chance, that wave 5 will still take off. In the worst case, wave 5 dies halfway at 15k             but we still take off from here regardless. So far, Momentum is bullish atm and we can see alot of buying activity actually happening since 6.8k broke. Still trying hard to absorb the selling. If this here 6.5k zone breaks without a bounce or if the bounce die then... it is the end of the bull market and the start of a bear market. Actually when 7.8k support broke, we already entered a bear market but this is the last turning point before we fully confirm that a bear market is here to stay till 2k maybe.

Good luck bulls, I closed my short and am taking a long position here. This idea will invalidate if we simply cannot absorb the sell off and breaks below 6.2k.
评论: Did not factor the force liquidation into my target, my bad. I weren't expecting that much margin call until 5k breaks but bulls toughed it out. For now, we have some breathing room but the bounce needs to break above 9.5k to say that we are back in the bull market.

May take a day or two to test 9.5k, can't exactly predict that time frame. For now, we bounced and we babysit while we continue to battle for the ball at 6.5k front line.
评论: Btw, I am not babysitting your trade. Don't pm me asking if you should sell or buy the dip. Unless you are paying me for my service that is.
交易手动结束: Exited the long at $6.8k for a intraday trade. I mentioned in the chat room that it needed to break $6.8k but it did not break above properly imo. Looks more like a short squeeze then actual buys. Thus closing instead of holding for a swing.

I already moved into a short for the record. May go sideway for the rest of the day, I will play by the ear and shift around. Good luck! I hope you guys got some good gains there, don't forget your stop losses if you are holding for a swing.

Feels good to predict the crash and then the recovery bounce, but still believe we have entered a bear market, thus not holding the long.
评论: I believe the top for this short term uptrend has peaked at $9050. Don't think we will be going on to break $9500. Maybe $9200 tops. Volume has been declining over the days and bulls did a great job taking the ball to $9k but I doubt this momentum can sustain.

The short term momentum has been a mix of bullish and bearish signals over the past few days, in which the bulls had the upper hand. But the long term momentum is still bearish, and the double bottom can only be seen up to the 15 mins. Good luck if you are still on this long, my recommendation is to sell. Wait for a test at $6k or further down.
Great analysis. Thank you.
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Thanks for the TA. No offence but there is nothing bullish about this market or chart yet, except your prediction. Volume is slowly picking up but that's about it.
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@AlexRex, note the word Momentum. We haven't resumed the bull market thus there is nothing bullish. But the bullish momentum is what we are hoping to resume the bull market. Does that answer your thought?
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AlexRex GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, Fair enough :) Thanks for clarifying - no objection against momentum :)
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AlexRex GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, are you going to wait for a capitulation bear candle and a reversal before going long? or what's your strategy?
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@AlexRex, I'm not sure on your question. This is a turning point, and the start of either a bull/bear market. If it goes up, its a long, if its goes down, its a short. There is no strategy involved at a turning point, except to wait or pick a side. Either way, I am waiting on the inevitable bounce to decide the market's future and whether I will exit my current long position.
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