Overview:
We remain bullish on Bitcoin'.
Technical:
Bitcoin' did not retest the 9977 level (0.618 retrace) which is indicative that though sentiment may be bearish, Bitcoineers are not. Support held at the 10339 level and currently have engulfing candle on the 12 hour. This is often a strong signal for a bullish reversal and seeing it happened at the 0.382 retrace of the recent bull swing it provide additional confirmation that we are likely to move higher. 11k is a level that psychologically needs to be broken and held to move higher. What is interesting is the more information we get the stronger our longer term target becomes. The 1.618 extension of the previous move lands us right in the middle of our longer term target level at 13098. This is the area I am looking for a completion of the current wave count and an area for a sign of a reversal.
Sentiment:
Market sentiment is neutral which where we are starting to see many analysts that were calling for 3k,5k and now 8k, simply trying to make a square block fit in a round hole. I still own my positions that I bought at 13700 13400 and 9700 from before the crash. My cost average is around 12k. Patience and not giving into impulses prevented us from selling at lower levels as the doom and gloomers were calling for lower levels. We were never swayed, and though we had the selloff (in my opinion due to the derivatives meltdown as I wrote about weeks ago) kept to our longer term perspective of the market and are longer term target of 21k.
Fundamental:
Bitcoin' users are expected to reach 200 million by 2024 and we are adding about 1 million new addresses a month. Of the 23+ million addresses about 3% of these are actively used every day. Now Ethereum' has passed Bitcoin' in new addresses with over 27 million addresses, but even with more addresses they have less active addresses then bitcoin' on any given day. Over 1/3 less. Comparing transactions over 18 billion dollars is sent daily compared to less than 1.5 billion dollars for Ethereum'. As demand increases and supply is limited the price is headed in one direction. UP!
Interesting parallel with gold'. Only about 1-2% of Americans own physical gold'. However over 10% have exposure to gold' through ETF’s and the derivatives market. Gold' like Bitcoin' is a pain to own physically. Once ETF’s enter the array of investment products this will bring more money into those wanting to hold Bitcoin' but do not want to hassle with it. They want to go onto Ameritrade and click buy this ETF. Done! Once wall street gets involved if you do not own you will wish you did.
Closing:
The longer term technical perspective is still strong for Bitcoin' and so is the fundamental perspective. Though many are claiming bitcoin' is not good for cash transactions the market clearly thinks differently. People think that fees and speed are what will determine transactions. This is partially true but for large transactions Bitcoin' is still the preferred method of money transfer. Add to this many people like myself simply buy and hold bitcoin' and the future is bright.
Regardless of the naysayers the facts speak different tune. Yes if you are all crypto all the time, then sure you may like other alt coins better. But the main stream investor sees name recognition and is not going to pour their hard earned money into Reddcoin. Seriously. For the nickle and dimers this is fine, but large institutions want security and that is found in bitcoin' PERIOD!
We remain bullish on Bitcoin'.
Technical:
Bitcoin' did not retest the 9977 level (0.618 retrace) which is indicative that though sentiment may be bearish, Bitcoineers are not. Support held at the 10339 level and currently have engulfing candle on the 12 hour. This is often a strong signal for a bullish reversal and seeing it happened at the 0.382 retrace of the recent bull swing it provide additional confirmation that we are likely to move higher. 11k is a level that psychologically needs to be broken and held to move higher. What is interesting is the more information we get the stronger our longer term target becomes. The 1.618 extension of the previous move lands us right in the middle of our longer term target level at 13098. This is the area I am looking for a completion of the current wave count and an area for a sign of a reversal.
Sentiment:
Market sentiment is neutral which where we are starting to see many analysts that were calling for 3k,5k and now 8k, simply trying to make a square block fit in a round hole. I still own my positions that I bought at 13700 13400 and 9700 from before the crash. My cost average is around 12k. Patience and not giving into impulses prevented us from selling at lower levels as the doom and gloomers were calling for lower levels. We were never swayed, and though we had the selloff (in my opinion due to the derivatives meltdown as I wrote about weeks ago) kept to our longer term perspective of the market and are longer term target of 21k.
Fundamental:
Bitcoin' users are expected to reach 200 million by 2024 and we are adding about 1 million new addresses a month. Of the 23+ million addresses about 3% of these are actively used every day. Now Ethereum' has passed Bitcoin' in new addresses with over 27 million addresses, but even with more addresses they have less active addresses then bitcoin' on any given day. Over 1/3 less. Comparing transactions over 18 billion dollars is sent daily compared to less than 1.5 billion dollars for Ethereum'. As demand increases and supply is limited the price is headed in one direction. UP!
Interesting parallel with gold'. Only about 1-2% of Americans own physical gold'. However over 10% have exposure to gold' through ETF’s and the derivatives market. Gold' like Bitcoin' is a pain to own physically. Once ETF’s enter the array of investment products this will bring more money into those wanting to hold Bitcoin' but do not want to hassle with it. They want to go onto Ameritrade and click buy this ETF. Done! Once wall street gets involved if you do not own you will wish you did.
Closing:
The longer term technical perspective is still strong for Bitcoin' and so is the fundamental perspective. Though many are claiming bitcoin' is not good for cash transactions the market clearly thinks differently. People think that fees and speed are what will determine transactions. This is partially true but for large transactions Bitcoin' is still the preferred method of money transfer. Add to this many people like myself simply buy and hold bitcoin' and the future is bright.
Regardless of the naysayers the facts speak different tune. Yes if you are all crypto all the time, then sure you may like other alt coins better. But the main stream investor sees name recognition and is not going to pour their hard earned money into Reddcoin. Seriously. For the nickle and dimers this is fine, but large institutions want security and that is found in bitcoin' PERIOD!
评论:
评论:
As you know I have 3 positional trades 13700,13483, and 9743. I have closed the 9743 trade at 10850 here as we are seeing buying exhausted at this level. I will look for this abc pattern to form and rebuy this position on a bullish reversal between 9680 and 10000 with an extreme low of 9350. I am looking to increase the amount of bitcoin for the longer term. This does NOT mean I am bearish, this is just a simple positional trade to reduce average cost and risk. The 12hour bar is clearly signaling a SHORT TERM bearish reversal. If we continue higher I still have the other two positional trades in play at a reduced cost. If we head lower I am able to add more bitcoin by buying with the same dollar amount just sold.
Again this is a positional trade and does NOT mean I am bearish on Bitcoin. It is easy to post paper trades, it is a whole different animal when you have skin in the game and you have to make an actual decision one way or the other.
Again this is a positional trade and does NOT mean I am bearish on Bitcoin. It is easy to post paper trades, it is a whole different animal when you have skin in the game and you have to make an actual decision one way or the other.
评论:
There were numerous variables that went into making this decision. It was not based on one signal only. Just to be clear. There are multiple signals but we can hesitate at the short term trend line and move higher. This how I am managing the trades and my money.
