Possible path to $4500

So now we have formed a double top and a double bottom so where do we go next? This WXYXZ elliot wave correction will only be valid if we break $6000. I see a lot of wave counts of 12345 waves down for this major CORRECTION, this is wrong unless apart of waves A or C (The 12345 impulse is only for WITH the trend NOT against). The WXYXZ pattern is apart of BTC's super cycle thus a 12345 count down is wrong as BTC's MAIN trend is still up until the green trend line is broken. Moving on.....

If BTC breaks this double bottom at 9.4k the next immediate supports and reversal zones are:

- $8800, wave 1 high of the recent bullish swing (it is not on my chart because I don't think it will be a possible reversal zone).
- Blue region, wave 2 territory and most importantly the 2017 uptrend line we have previously bounced off as well as 0.618 fib.
- Double bottom at $6000.
- $4500, 0.786 fib.
- $2500, BTC's overall uptrend line since 2015.

I think we will likely get a dead cat bounce off of $8800 support. A key reversal zone I will be looking for is in my blue region, if it fails and the red trend line along with it we can expect blood on the streets with a fall to $6000 and possibly $4500. I don't think we will test the green trendline at least until next year. It is good to note that bounces from double bottoms and after WXYXZ patterns are usually extremely impulsive (fast), so even if one of these bearish scenarios play out I will be very bullish for April/May.

Conversely if BTC can break above $10750 I will put these bearish scenarios on hold and update my analysis.

Please like and follow for updates and note the trend lines are in log scale.

*This is not financial advice*

交易开始:

Hey guys we are approaching the major support in one of the scenarios, I think there is a good chance we can reverse from here but at the very least we will get a good bounce to play for a good trade.
Support factors:
- Golden pocket of entire rally since 2015
- Golden pocket of recent bullish swing
- 2017 rally trendline (has been supportive historically)

Also take a look at the 4H RSI it is extremely oversold and is actually about to reach support region indicated by the yellow line. A bounce from 8.2k looks good.

评论:

This ABC we are currently in is wave 2 of a higher degree with wave 1 being the rally we just had. This is an interesting personality of second waves:

" Second waves tend to retrace so much of Wave 1 that most of the profits gained are eroded. They tend to end on low volume and low volatility. In a bear market, this indicates a drying up of selling pressure. However, during Wave 2 most investors are convinced that the bear market is here to stay."

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Well done to those who went long, if we fail to break the downtrend channel again do not be disheartened as we never even reached our major suppport the bulls defended well before it. A test of 8.2k major support and a large bounce could very likely carry us out of the downtrend channel. Remember everyone is mostly bearish and btc rarely does what we are thinking.

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Trading on minor support will likely go down to the major support at 7.9-8.2k where I will look to add to my position.

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Closed my short at 8420 and man, the bulls are really defending this support region above my own. Likely another dead cat bounce but this tells me there are buyers in the area and a lot of fib traders and ellioticians will be looking at the 7.9k-8.2k region to go long (myself included). We could be in wave c of the correction I will update count when I am out of the lab.

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Count is a bit iffy but this is the count for my bull scenario:

We really need to bounce hard off this 8.2k region otherwise drops to 7.2k and possibly 6k become most likely outcomes.

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Sub waves look decent:

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Man that count got decimated quickly, here is a bullish alternate count. BTC is like always doing what we don't expect. This count is again very iffy as a truncated C after such a strong wave A seems verly unlikely to me but lets see how this plays out.

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Hey guys an update on the bullish count I think it looks good, I will be looking to add to my position at 9200 if we stay within what looks like a bull flag. I don't have time to do a bearish scenario at this point in time or anything more in depth, I will try when I can.

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The 9.1k-9.2k area should offer a lot of support in the short term:
- 1H 55 EMA
- Downtrend line turned support
-Daily 200 EMA

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This is the bearish count, I am still neutral but we really need to break above 9200 at least for me not to form a bearish bias.

交易开始:

Sorry for the lack of updates I have been quite busy, we bounced off 7.9k nicely although momentum doesn't seem to be following up. Taking a partial profit between 8.2-8.3k wouldn't go amiss in my opinion.

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Sub waves of wave C. 2.618 extension of waves 1 and 2 is at 6500, this also coincides with a 1:1 extension of wave A into C.

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交易开始:

Apologies for lack of updates this is my short term prediction, chart self explanatory.

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Potential cypher pattern setting up on the 1H. We could see a rally to 7800 before a decline to 7260 and 6950 if this pattern plays out.

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交易开始:

Key resistances smashed, cypher pattern looks like a high possibility of completing. Take profit at completion area.

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BTC failing to make any ground and a mini H and S is forming on the 1 hour chat.

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Broken down from neckline easy short profit.

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We are nearing the end of a symmetrical triangle, these are continuation patterns so we will likely see more downside especially with the 1H 55 EMA coming down to meet it. There is a possibility we break up however it is less likely. Ideally I would like to see a break above the 1H 55 EMA and daily close candle close above 6850.

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Finding support around 6600 from previous historical bottoms however we will likely consolidate in a bear flag before dropping further. 1H and 2H MACD has performed a bearish cross supporting this. If we do drop we have support at 6400 and 5.9-6.1k. We will likely consolidate around 6400 similar to the current price action before dropping down to our major double bottom support where will hopefully get our reversal. In short: Do not close our shorts yet :)