bernino
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BTCUSD Bull 3000 test - break out of down channel

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
We've just broken out of the down channel by C, D, that came to be as a result of the coiling by the triangle formation after first pull back from 3000, lines A and B. So, this will be the last leg of the trade from

Ichimoku on 1,5,15,30min have crossed over and candles are punching out through the wall of the channel, pointing up and away. There is of course still a risk that we pull back into the down channel , but ... nah. I don't see that happening. Too much FOMO going on for that. We are doing the last crossings of the channel wall now due to the immense volatile nature of BTCUSD             and the many swing traders.

Its important that we cross through the blue resistance line as that's the past top. We've already established a "higher low" of the bigger picture with our touching of 2200 forming a trend line F, but we must now also establish a higher high at 2770.. set alarms here! If we don't, then this will turn bearish very fast for another test downwards, so this will be critical. I will take profit at 2770 for sure and wait and see until north of there.

MACD and RSI on 4hr scale has plenty of gas to give for pedal to the metal type of action full throttle, let's go up. The velocity could either be that of the past 3000 rally or that of the past up trend, line B.

The Ichimoku 4hr and 1day will follow soon enough as we pierce upwards. Now its only a question how far and fast which is mostly determined by the momentum available from RSI - i.e.. you guys out there being bullish buyers - but the setup is clear. BTCUSD             want's to test 3000. Its like a child and candy - there's just no control ;-) ... it will be driven by FOMO and all the good news lately of various governments establishing blockchain projects, India regulating bitcoin             etc. etc. (I'm hoping to go there and check it out - PM me!).

I went long shortly after we broke out at 2420 and unless I feel like swing trading on the potential Elliott waves and other ABCDE zig zags MACD type of stuff - maybe 5-15min scalping on EMA just to play with timing skills ... then I will stay long.

All other crypto pairs are clearly correlated to BTCUSD             so they will follow suit +/- as the BTC             is the main wealth creator until ETH takes over.

Have a nice ride and as always - the above is contingent on probabilities easiest modelled by Fibonacci Retracements and of course that none of the ICOs currently ending their fundraising period aren't 100% scams or crash and burn type of things. That could shed away a lot of new investors.

Hedge Fund: finally - some friends and I are starting a hedge fund with these trade setups as model. PM me, just FYI.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD            
评论: Of course there's still reason to be cautious - on 5min there's a full on Head and Shoulders which is never nice as a breakout attempt: ... green clouds will push us in the right direction.
评论: 15 min scale is better for understanding systemic change. 1 and 5min causes too much noise due to volatility and that causes FUD in the trader...

What I see and expect is that EMA bands were stretched out a biiiit too far - MACD needs to adjust down and RSI too. So we will have a sliding downwards price action more or less along the north side of the channel wall until we get closer to green ichimoku where RSI will be negative and MACD back on the upswing.

评论: ups wrong picture. Heres the right one:
评论: Horizontal lines are Fib Ret's and yellow are old support / resistance so that when I see coiling and such I immediately know why
评论: Promised update. The EMA bending and sliding price action happened over night in my sleep, no gians there but the setup to a bullish channel has now completed, yay!

So, our channel strategy should follow Elliott wave theory, waves on waves on waves which is fractal by nature. This works well for asset classes that have little correlation with externalities and are mostly driven by FUD / FOMO (ie. a more perfect market without politicians).

I haven't done the calculus yet but here's some initial thoughts / chart:



Will update as events happen. Happy swing trading! Or stay long for now ;-)
评论: I still need to calc the Fibonacci based dimensions of the up channel. But... if I'm right just be free hand charting, its something like this:



So, I'd go long as soon as Ichimoku merits that while down here and then I'd short along the top of the channel back and forth, probably a bi daily or daily swing?
评论: Also - if you're in a LONG position from up at say 2500 .. DONT PANIC. Check the 1hr chart and know we are still safe. Its only time to think about cutting losses if 1hr Ichimoku starts to flip over, because then we have a new trend.

Just wait a day ;-)

评论: Check MACD and RSI 1hr and see why we needed to cool down ;-)
交易结束:到达止损: I closed out at about 2540ish or some 100-150 dollar points from where I went long and then I've been busy with some other stuff. I did catch the train from 2320 or so up to 2400ish and then closed out. Next will be bearish. Update later :-)

For me it was another profitable setup though sadly we didn't get to test 2750 nor 3000. It looks like we need to build up some more volatility and get 1day MACD negative before we can reach back up.

That's probably happening at 2100 or deeper, so expect bearish.
Let me know your thoughts:
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could you give an update of what you expect to happen next?
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@sjesul, yeah absolutely - update coming later today but for now I'm bearish and shorting. I took profit at the first stop that I expected from Fib Rets at 2560 I think it was so in this trade I only got some $100ish dollar points. Then I did some swings but mostly I've had some time off and doing other stuff :D ... then I saw that we broke out down wards of the channel and anyway we didn't have enough momentum / velocity so now 2440 should be a resistance and we prob need to go down and test 2100 as I kinda had expected in my last bearish trade setup...

We may need to go all the way down to 1800 to get MACD 1day calm but more on that later. ... now some coffee, sunday cleaning, life ;-)
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sjesul bernino
@bernino, thanks for the clear update.
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@sjesul, finally :
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