Non the less it is has to crash for now and test a moving average. Today USD is recovering a bit so that fewer people will want to escape USD.
2. The green trend bow may be the most rational:
Bitcoin is growing but it got many competitors and it doesnt need to grow as fast as it was because
It already surpassed the stock market value of Paypal (and many trading servies combined)
- Thats enough for now. Surpassing all competitors is a roof:
There are only a few 100 million people in the world up to do (cheaper) cross border online payments or trading.
And user numbers have to multiply many times still to reach up to paypal alone. Yet that is already priced in. What more do you expect in the next several month to happen other than the bubble bursting?
It is unclear how much advantage / disadvange bitcoin price really got through decentralization and how much it will.
Trust in decentralization may increase in future but now it may still be a bit of a mental or technical barrier for most of the target group.
Bitcoin users do yet often rely on poorly regulated/bad centralized services. Bitcoin didnt attempt an internal ecosystem as much as steemit, bitshares, nxt, anthares, eos, ethereum and so on and it may very well stay surpassed by all of these combined, whichever of them may win.
3. The grey trend is the pessimistic one thinking bitcoin was a great concept but surpassing Paypal was already more than enough for a long time to come and bitcoin may split into more forks and never really try more than 50% market cap again but especally that all the dirty politics manipulating the market will eventually shoot themselves in the leg trying to rescue their "bitcoin is king".
Decentralization is great. But this is just part of it. Bitcoin does not need to keep all the marketcap.
The hype this weeks is not related to halving. It is related to gambling and manipulation. 80% of bitcoin are mined. Billions were traded today (and only $7million mined.)
- This is too high to be good. This makes bitcoin distribution weaker. 1000 Adresses already manage 35% of bitcoin . (which could be several times fewer people or companies than 1000)
but at this , the daily revenue of exchanges is really higher than the amount mined!
This is far form rational. It means masses of private gamblers are donating/submitting to shady trading services for them to accumulate at least 50% of all bitcoin .
If you want to keep cryptocurrencies while the bubbles burst, then look for those tht are "not impressed - with low/normal to marketcap ratios, like 1/1000.
by transaction amount prices chould be 3-3.5 times higher than 3.5 years ago. So <=$2000
- But most of the price is about the future. So we have to subtract the decreased risk/reward. While Bitcoin may still have potential and ultimate top 20 years could be 10 times more? But thats not a special investment anymore and risky. Now bitcoin is also very far from the ground and much nearer to the top. Thats nothing compared to the opportunity when bitcoin was below $100 and you could say "maybe in 5 years it will be 50 times more"
now the question is: will Bitcoin life up to the bubble price expectation? And how long until a billions more people join online payments and how soon and will bitcoin really have The biggest market share VS. Paypal and VS. all other Cryptocurrencies, despite Paypal has many times more transactions now. Other crypto currencies have many different security advantages combined without disadvantages necessarily, such as dash's 13 algos intead of just one.
- And a few days ago it was already waving its big red flag about the potential lunatic area, up to <=$4800
(And it said that the base anchor was below $3000 obviously) Didn't you agree?
you can also see since we are well above 3000 sales candles have more aggressive volume spikes than buying
I also said earlier: my red and pink trend lines are breaking rather sooner than later. Gravityy wins.
ascending broadening wedge, lost strength, about to break down?
Maybe in future it will rally again but why bitcoin? Do you care? If you like decentralization than you like bitcoin dominance falling.