Looks like we have a similar situation in cryptos that the one at the end of 2013/start of 2014 "China crisis". If we learn from the historical price movement, future movement in 2017 should be similar to the one shown on my graph. After last bounce bear market is expected for probably more than 1 year after we reached the top.
There are more reasons to believe we have reached the top with 5000. One of them can be found in related ideas.
This time I hope I am wrong. :/
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By the plan for now. 4000k might be the psychological and technical line where it stops. At the moment we have a strong wall on 4k: data.bitcoinity.org/markets/books/USD
Lower target (3975) would put us on the safer place.
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Local top of 4135 was reached on Kraken as pointed out in our original post (green arrow). It will be interesting to see the movement from here on.
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Price movement in upcoming days will show if we have one more push left. If hitting lower low before we hit all-time high I hardly believe there is enough time left before the end of the year. If no LL and pushing forward fast there might be space for one more push.
Here are the thoughts of fellow trader about that:
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Some say we are still bullish. Next days will tell!
Looks interesting.
I came up with a quite similar scenario in my analysis. BTC @ 2400 doesn´t seem to be so much off the possible path. It would be basically just a fallback to the lower TL.
... would confirm the logarithmic path to BTC@200K in 2025 (according to world economic forum) ;)
... and open up the opportunity for BTC@10K+ in 2018
@MJMeetya, looks interesting, ... have to admit I didn´t dare to look so much to the south
SafeGamble
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It's not comparable. For starters, Bitcoin is stronger and exchanges much more widespread. The closure is temporary and I bet exchanges are back before the end of the year. Even if that wasn't the case, the news are already factored in and the market correction we've witnessed had to happen regardless of news. Correction isn't finished, but we are likely to exceed 5k in October.
MJMeetya
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@SafeGamble, I would be personally grateful if I could agree with you, but exponential growth has to stop somewhere. Yes - correction around 30% has happened for few times this year already. However, every exponential curve has to end at some point. Exponential hypes have happened to Bitcoin for a few times in previous years also, but they all finished at some point. With the psychological boundary of rounded number (5000), China news and 10x growth this year it looks time has come. Once again - my humble hope is that you are right and I am not, but at the moment I do not see enough arguments to support the opposite. Even emotions are against it. Masses have come to Bitcoin land and they usually do not respond rationally, so they leave it when the beast of fear comes around.
SafeGamble
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@MJMeetya, your points are valid, but 10x growth in a year is nothing that Bitcoin hasn't seen before on more than one occasion and at times when the pull towards adoption was low. It had not made it to the mainstream yet nor was the hype sentiment so fierce. It is in a rapidly expanding new market and it's seeing some reasonable correction periods. The $5000 psychological barrier is quickly wearing out even though it was reached only a few days ago and it shies compared the numbers being thrown around, really. I agree that this is very much a sentiment-driven market, but there's already been a steep shake off of weak hands. I would be more weary of the hard fork in November than Chinese fear mongering, but that's just my opinion.
MJMeetya
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@SafeGamble, I've been counting on good market conditions till the end of Sept, start of October and leaving before hard fork. Similar to 1st of August fork - you had to be out in July, before bottom hit on 16th July and already back in the game on the day of the fork if not before. We would really need to be fast here to catch the top before making the dip in October before possible fork. I do not see how we can do that. That's my concern. Adding everything up still does not bring me the right mood. Maybe the local top (lower than 5000) will happen even in the mid of October...
SafeGamble
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@MJMeetya, actually I wish I had gone through the whole August,1st fork event holding Bitcoin and better yet, having bought just before the rally to the signalling of Segwit2x in mid-July at $1800. I played safe like you did, though, and bought back after the fork.
My view is that we're hopping between bull-bear markets every 30 days roughly. Bear July, bullish August, bear September, bullish October, bear hard-fork November. If this stands, and I'm often wrong (like in July-August) going into fiat or tether once the October highs start to confirm resistance might be wise. Perhaps selling when it retests the top in October(?) would be safer if you're concerned.
I came up with a quite similar scenario in my analysis. BTC @ 2400 doesn´t seem to be so much off the possible path. It would be basically just a fallback to the lower TL.
... would confirm the logarithmic path to BTC@200K in 2025 (according to world economic forum) ;)
... and open up the opportunity for BTC@10K+ in 2018