The break out was with conviction this time. Most exchange show a big volume during that break out, so thats a positive thing. The target is difficult to predict now, but it should be around 12K. However i don't think it will be that easy to reach, but this break of the 9K is a first big step!. Whatever happens, it should stay above the 8400! But actually above the 8800/9000!
评论
⋅
Now we could see a test of the 8900/9100 levels (difficult to say where it could go). nothing wrong with that, if it just go on, than it's even more bullish for the short term at least
评论
⋅
I think it will rally up from this pont, but we could see a small correction to complete this small H&S
评论
⋅
It's looking very strong now, it did not even make a normal flag after the break of the 9K today, it was flagging upwards, now another small up spike wich is flagging as we speak. Should see 9800/9850 any minute now. There i will close some. The 10.000 level will be a resistance, but as it is moving now i think it will be taken out very easily
评论
⋅
This analysis still counts, it's almost the exact same thing that is happening now, the consolidation fase only took a little bit longer. If this happens, this means we should turn somewhere 9800 and 10500 i think. But thats a pure guess. For now we have a very strong outbreak, the inverse H&S has a target around 12K. So if we wont hear any negative news that could turn everything around, than expect at least 11K.
评论
⋅
I have closed half now
评论
⋅
We could see another small drop, making a flag on the hourly chart, i will probably add again the ones i closed at 9800
评论
⋅
I have closed the remaining longs. Think we can go sideways now and go below the 10k again, I will wait for a new entry to go long again. Nice trade again with an average of 900 points :)
评论
⋅
have a feeling, that we could be making a h&s again. The same as we did at the 13.000 top a month ago, the h&s I called a week before it happened. The sideways action is almost identical, between the 10.800 and 12.000 back than, same as the 7.800 and 9.000 now. Than a rally towards the 13.000 just like now. Something to keep in mind! You can see it in the chart of my previous update
评论
⋅
I am shorting it at 10125 now, with a stop 10250, my target is around 9800/9500. good risk reward. Could be making a double top now for the coming hours.
评论
⋅
Something like this
评论
⋅
Already 120 points profit, i have lowered my stop to my entry level for a free trade! The green line is an important support level now, if it drops below, than you have to assume the double top is set and we could go towards the 9700/9500 again
评论
⋅
Thats to bad, went through my stop, good thing i lowered my stop. it could still make a double top though. I think this rally is getting a bit exhausted and needs a healthy correction in time and price. I have shorted it again at 10210
评论
⋅
I have added at 10250, i think there is a small H&S in the make, i thought the low at 9500 would be the neckline, but i was afraid that one would be to big. This one would be perfect, with a target around 9500. Would be a perfect play, 9500 is a good support level of the resistance it had a few weeks ago. It is looking strong though, so i could be wrong of course :). I have increased my stop to around 10.400 now
评论
⋅
Looks (almost) like the first sign of weakness now
评论
⋅
I have closed the ones at 10250 at 10001 :)
评论
⋅
I think its making a flag now, with a target around the green area (the neckline of the H&S i was talking about. It's falling into place now.
you re so incredibly fast with your charts! support seems to be holding for now.
Aamir66
⋅
As per your last update, so you're saying it will reverse with a peak of 10.5 ? @botje11
botje11
⋅
@Aamir66, No, for now i still think we will go up, it's to important for the big stakeholders to get above the 10K, now that we are here i think we could stay here for a while. BUT if the market decides (the ones who wanted to unload but not at the lows) to go down again, the whales will try to some level, but cant stop it ofcourse. I am just saying the H&S could happen. If we drop towards the 9500/9700 again, somewhere in between i will probably go long. But i wont just sit on it, i will watch if it breaks the previous high again. I dont like this rally from the 8400 at all, i just think it's a big rescue operation. But the market says up for now, thats why i went long around 9100.
Aamir66
⋅
@botje11, whales can make money shorting it so it could be in their interest too and then drive it up later again.. I don't like it either we haven't tested the bottom its just been flying through esp from 8.4k
botje11
⋅
@Aamir66, Ofourse they can, they will always do so. But there is a difference between normal whales and bitcoin whales (who i call big stakeholders). They cannot afford that the price crashes to much like it has done the last few weeks. Most of their wealth is in Bitcoin, so they will always do whatever they can to stop the price from crashing to much. That's what i mean with rescue operation, they are doing this, i am just 100% sure.
botje11
⋅
I have a feeling, that we could be making a h&s again. The same as we did at the 13.000 top a month ago, the h&s I called a week before it happened. The sideways action is almost identical, between the 10.800 and 12.000 back than, same as the 7.800 and 9.000 now. Than a rally towards the 13.000 just like now. Something to keep in mind! You can see it in the chart of my previous update
Aamir66
⋅
@botje11 How do u know what patters are unfolding before they do? I mean it could turn out to be anything else like an ascending triangle..?
botje11
⋅
@Aamir66, How i know that (sometimes) thats just experience, of all the pattern i have seen in my life, in stocks, indices, commodities and so on. But patterns can always change into another if the market decides to. Bearish H&S turning into a bullish flag or triangle. That's why i always try to stay flexible