mycotoxin

Either a move to 8800 or 9500

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
2031 23 20
Either a move to 8800 or 9500
评论: The top of the flag is 9451, which is where a bounce down can occur.
Breaking past this 9451 value will lead to a move to 10500.

BUT....

There is still one move missing - The move to 7800 is missing - Where has this move gone ?

评论: BTC beaks out of the flag upwards its worth hopping on till 10500
评论: just needs to get past 9463
评论: ill go here and trade the breakout or breakdown
评论: BTC better get back up there past 9463 and quit messing with my BTC .
评论: A casual walk through this area stopping to smell the flowers will not be sufficient to get past through this spot . This area is a quadruple top and BTC needs to make a big breakout candle to move past it .
评论: I see that big candle on the 1 hour time frame ...its looking serious
评论: looking like a breakout !
评论: On the 1 hour timeframe BTC has 9 minutes to wrap up this candle -
keep moving it up up up up
评论: if this holds which it may , the next challenge is the 10k mark .
Bring it on ! BTC knows kung-Fu
评论: here comes the new 1 hour candle in 30 seconds - help is on the way
评论: What is up with this new I hour candle ...ridiculous . Lets get some effort here
评论: whats the worst case outcome it would be a reversal back to 9413
评论: But BTC looks good today and i have hope in the bull to move past this area
评论: Another on of those big BTC candles on the 1 hour timeframe will cut through this messy area . I see one being construcuted
评论: the 15 min candle can start laying down reversal candles - I really hope not
评论: there it goes the 15 min , causing problems

评论: the 70 min candle is 15 mins away , he will probably sort this out when he shows up and kics the 15 min candle aside. Unfortunately the 4 hour candle is 90 minutes away so it may be a while before he shows up
评论: The 15 min candle can give a potential drop to 9400 but in 30 secs . The 70 min candle arrives and may flip it back up .
评论: A brand new resistance spot has been created at 9630 and this is now the sticking point. BTC has to get past this spot and turn it into support .
评论: trend change incoming
评论: 4 hour candle shows up in 25 mins . Hoping this candle gets things moving
评论: Theres a trend change brewing and it could be an up move.
评论: 4 hour candle will show up in 30 seconds,
评论: 4 hour is going the wrong way , but relax as there's till that missing 7800 drop . So if BTC falls there's plenty of time to get out ad still make profit .
评论: traitor
评论: The drop distance is 9400 if it occurs
评论: The 4 hour candle usually sorts thing out in its on way, so best give it sometime to figure out the plan to get out of 9630
评论: This Is the trend change we were expecting so let it do its thing and it should warp up soon
评论: BTC could also drop to 9200 ,
评论: Dropping past 9200 will be a sign of weakness
评论: another trend change incoming
评论: Current Channel- breaking below the pink line puts BTC in quadruple top area,
Breaking out of the channel is a sign of weakness and further falling .

评论: falliong outside the channel is not a good move
评论: the double bottom at 9433 is the only thing holding BTC up in this range
评论: This current action looks like we can head go to the 9100 area , unless there's a change in direction soon.
评论: the 4 hour candle will land a new candle in 10 mins and at the same time the 1 hour and 2 hour candle will land reversal candles so it may get dicey
评论: BUT there's some hope,,
评论: Scanning the 12 hour candle shows that its turned on the BUY candle marked by the pink lines . What does he know that we don't ?

评论: the 12 hour is letting us know that in 12 hours or so there will be upward movement
评论: and it looks like the target will be 10500
评论: "Uncle-12-hour" should be working on the first of these candles in 2 minutes.
This is big candle that closes every 12 hours so we can expect to see improvements
every 12 hours
评论: as this 12 hour fellow is biggie-sized candle , it can drop and overlap the last candle to about 93xx and still go back up a lot higher . Try doing this with a 1 hour candle ( its not going to happen) This is one of the benefits of being a 12 hour candle .
评论: confirmation of the "Uncle-12-hour" candles intention will be an increase in the current price of BTC = doesn't have to be much but it has to be an upward move
评论: I see the the 9600, thumbs up confirmation
评论: Putting this puzzle together we know can drop to around 9300 or so and still move up to 10x or higher.
- Now the question is so where does the missing 7800 drop fit it as its still MIA ?
..It must be coming up later after this 10xx move or so is my thought.
评论: i think it's around 92xx not 93xx - I may exit and buy it back at that range as $200 is nice pocket change
评论: Mmh this may be where the missing 7800 fits in . This looks like the old "slanted head and shoulders more"

评论: This is also similar to the following move seen in ancient times

评论: This is not meant to be trading advice and I could be talking bunch of baloney blah blah blah and BTC falls to 6k - but it sure appears that BTC is following the play described above
评论: MACD crossing brace for the descent to 93xx / 92xx
评论: closer to 92xx is more like it ...9182 or so ,
评论: First stop 9437
评论: Mmmh im sure theres a drop to 92xx in there somewhere , its part of the move up.
评论: slow moving and could take a while

评论: Another option is to follow the blue slanting line

评论: Those long lines coming off the candles on the graph above represent the price acton. The Bears will not move and neither will the Bulls . It's stale mate. A traffic stop on the Freeway.
-Someone please print some extra Tethers and lets get this moving .
评论: Great, this is our expected drop ...needs to drop a bit more
评论: Mum always knows best

评论: The minimum drop is around 9257 and the max is around 91xx
评论: Mothers day Lads - send Mum some flowers , cash in some of that LTC or BTC .
评论: if we do happen to pass 9100 on the way down , this will be my exit as it implies a drop to visit the 7800 are . However this does not seem like its that kind of a drop now . Im expecting 918x to be the worst case drop.
评论: This is the drop we expected earlier . Its the 12 hour candle working its plan to take BTC higher to 10k and above .
This plan is still in effect as long as 9080 is not broken
评论: i double checked and it has to be 9187 . This is looking like the bounce spot
评论: nothing harm in having a stop loss at 9100, always a good idea to have one.
评论: I'll try that again in English:

There is no harm in having a stop loss at 9100, its always a good idea to have one.
评论: thats not correct
评论: This a new candle and the drop has now moved to a Possible max of 9040
评论: I have exited and will buy in later after this rukus completes
评论: i could have calculated this incorrectly and the last drop to 9346 is it , im sure it was 9187 , but 9346 works also I guess .
评论: Sell signal triggered on the 15 min candle indicating a possible drop
评论: May just be a small drop to 94xx
评论: here it comes
评论: its a slow drop as its a 4 hour candle so takes about 4 hours to complete . 93xx area I suspect
评论: then it should bounce back up again
评论: can go till 107xx

评论: Closing out - thanks and have great evening
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评论: Bull flag with move to 9939

评论: stop loss at 9400 for 9300
评论: try this again ..stop loss at 9400
评论: 9485

评论: not 9485 should be 9650
评论: That was the missing 9186 drop mentioned earlier - This is why BTC is very clever, it pretends to ignore the drops and goes up but BTC will come down later to collect it .
This is how how we know BTC will hit 7800 later after this 10K run as that 7800 move has been skipped, and BTC will come back to collect it later .
The same with the the 6k and 4k moves those were also ignored a few weeks ago and will be collected later.
评论: The challenging part is the 4 hour candle will complete this messy candle drop and land another Candle in 20 minutes. Im hoping it will not be another candle like this . Im sure it will not be.
-
This missing drop was 9186 and BTC has completed it , but there is also another at 9046 . Im very sure BTC will not do this one today and will rather move up but still , its best to be aware there could be one more dip in 20 minutes time
评论: careful thi can hit 8500
评论:
评论: THis is
评论: this is a tough decision .Are we going to 850o 0r 10300 ? we have 5 mins to figure this out - feedback please
评论: i really dont trust that 4 hour candle
评论: 10 seconds
评论: this is an 8500 drop
评论: mmh ,,,whats happening here ?
评论: i think this is a bull trap
评论: because BTC has reversed in the middle of space
评论: This could be a Bull trap to just below 9655 then BTC reverses back to 8800.

In this last drop BTC covered the two missing drops 9186 and 9040 so those can be marked off - but the 7800 drop is still outstanding and Missing .
Can this drop be taken today ? Well lets check .
评论: Theres also a resistance at 9279 and if BTC is going legit, BTC will prove this by first crossing 9279
评论: 8000

评论: BTC can gp to 9200 and then come tumbling down , Just like jack and jill who climbed up the hill
评论: if you got trapped in 9k relax and take life easy - BTC still has three outstanding moves 7800, 6k and 4k .
I don't know when then will get played but they will in the coming weeks / days so don't sweat the small stuff.
评论: Don't listen to strangers in dark coats who say the correction is over at 7800 ,
评论: all those who think this is too long say "aye" , and i'll start a fresh one . Too much scrolling down on this one
评论: This move is incomplete as the drop distance is 8600

评论: This has to be a bull trap as rechecking the graph shows the 4 hour has a drop to 8329 -

Hence something is odd here and a move to 8329 is Missing In Action, ,
评论: This missing drop is between 8535 and 8329-

-
评论: The 1 hour candle shows it can flip positive for a few hours so BTC may climb to around 93xx or 95xx before dropping .
This is possible only if BTC is able to pass 9073
评论: an interesting take - A take a tripple low
评论: if BTC can exit this triangle , its a short run to 95xx
its curent;y at the edge , needs to hit 9170 or above
评论: BTC is still stuck at the wall at 9144 - Break it already man !
This Will give a nice run to 9600 if the wall is taken out .
I like this idea.
评论: does look like a cup and saucer to 9600

评论: if this a cup an saucer we can expect a move to around 9000 to do make the handle .
The drop can make us nervous , but remember there's always 7800 BTC which will come up so we can get some cash back - ill gamble this move and Exit at 9050
评论: 9036 should be the stopping point
评论: any lower ...ill exit
评论: Wow - that was a bit close for comfort
评论: This is getting to be very long and will start a new one- at the link below

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@mycotoxin Hello friend, what do you think of this scenario?

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mycotoxin RodrigoGarreton
@RodrigoGarreton, could be , the four hour confirms a drop to not 8600 but 8445.
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@mycotoxin, is a problem because our analyzes in this case would not be complementary in the minimum
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RodrigoGarreton RodrigoGarreton
@mycotoxin certainly, at this moment apparently both possibilities (yours and mine) are feasible
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mycotoxin RodrigoGarreton
@RodrigoGarreton, Cheers yes .
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I actually don't know if 8500 is the lowest it will drop, got that number from you :)
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Yup, might make it as far 9500 and then most likely drop to 8500
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mycotoxin Clueless13
@Clueless13, Cheers Yes it does seem that way , and what's with the slow movements ? BTC s is looking tired.
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still going down to $8500??
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