So as we build up to the first full moon of March, we leave feburary with bitcoin, throwing up a Golden MA cross on both the 4hr and Daily chart, we only just recently have the Death Cross form and that still potentially needs to play out before the Golden....
looking at the 4hr one here to get an idea of where to take some nice profits and where Bitcoin is headed in next few days, weeks and rest of March
we still not seen a clear break, today got rejected quite clearly at 11k
next supports at 10500 and 10200, if these break we could be in the same shit as last week, a basic kill zone
RSI shows quite oversold, so bearish there but MACD is rising up and expecting it to follow the flow bigger moves around first week of march with that full moon energy but it could go either way here, so im staying neutral for now, but will react quickly if breaks up or down
the fibs are there to show the retracement
so shout out to Tom who is providing DAILY professional Trade Analysis in our telegram chat group and feed, you can join by clicking the link in the signiture below:
here is an example of todays TA:
"BTCUSD 28 February 2018: Price action continued to push north during both UK and NY sessions, continuing with a price pop to near 11k during early Asian trading.
The handle from our cup and handle pattern we are tracking on the daily for the past couple weeks - has nearly completed with stochastics retreating from the key 55 level. We will potentially see more consolidation in this range untill a breakout conventionally marked by a death cross followed by the golden cross.
With bullish sentiment growing across the crypto market as BTC transaction fees drop and Segwit adoption reaches a high of 20% now we can see a stronger fundemental support during Q2."
outlook, headeding downwards to test previous lows and then possible break out and up into the first week or march but if klows dont hold awe could see further downside to 8k areas
trade smart and safe, wear a stop loss!
评论
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We really need to see a move and close above the 12K level on Bitcoin before we can confident of a new rally higher (potential wave 3 move higher).
For now, traders who went long this week at the 10,150 to 10,400 levels, can consider raising their stoploss to 9700-9740 to reduce risk. This is optional of course and aggressive traders who can tolerate more risk can use a wider stop (e.g. below this week's lows).
If bitcoin closes below the lows of this week at 9300 (which is less likely, but it is possible) then this could open the door to further selling pressure towards 8,000-8,200
do you think another drop to 6k or lower is out of the question?
majorlee
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@samiswilf, its not out of the question but its not very probable, safe to see 8-9k BTC over the next week, im shorting right now....
will update some TA for it soon
samiswilf
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@majorlee, Honestly, I think shorts cause price to rise. The whales (which could include the exchanges who might be using your account info again you) know you have to buy back, so they jack up the price. Shorting guarantees demand to buy back. Knowing that you have to buy, they'll make sure you buy at higher price.
@majorlee, thank you for posting! FYI another guy touting 30 years of experience is saying "it has an extremely high probability of dropping below 5500 within the next few weeks."
At this point I don't know what's evidence for what. Bitcoin is so highly manipulated that a TA indicator like h&s is no longer adequate evidence that price will not drop shortly after completion of h&s.
I'd like to learn what is evidence that price will increase/decrease/move sideward, and like to see evidence that the "evidence" is actually evidence. Google trends is evidence. Historical data that huge steep dips bounce up most of the time is evidence. Besides that, I don't know what else is evidence. I've seen RSI indicate x and price do y too often; same with macd. I've seen low volume followed by a rise (Nov 22, 2017); seen it followed by drops. I've seen everything looking like the coin is about to drop and it's almost like someone pushes the "on" button and the pump machine starts out of nowhere, literally like someone turned on a machine after turning it off.
12h EMA lines touched on Jan 17, corresponding with the start of the drop from 11k to 6k. But look at Oct 27. It doesn't happen there.
News seems to correlate. When Segwit2x was delayed, we saw the drop between Nov 8-18 2017. But These recent dips seem to be newsless.
Some people say it's a routine dump starting in December and ending on chinese new year. But on Dec 2012 to March 2013 it just rose.
Moreover, let's take a look:
Dec 2010 - March 2011 bitcoin rose about 4x, no fall prior to chinese new year.
Dec 2011 - Jan 2012, bitcoin rose over 2.5x, although it dropped right before Chinese new year on Feb 16.
Dec 2012 - March 2013 bitcoin rose almost 3x, no fall prior to chinese new year.
Dec 2013 - April 2014 we see a 67% correction from high on Dec 3. It dropped steep in December, and then dropped again on Feb 4 continuing passed chinese new year (drop did not stop on chinese new year). The drop ended temporarily on Mar 2 when it rose, but then the drop continued again.
Dec 2014 - Mar 2015 was part of a bigger downtrend. Nothing special happened before chinese new year, but there was a drop in Jan.
Dec 2015 - March 2016 - btc on uptrend. Nothing special happened before chinese new year, but there was a drop in Jan.
Dec 2016 - March 2017 - btc on uptrend. Nothing special before chinese new year, but a 30% drop in January
2 of the 8 past years had no drop in Jan-Feb. Only this year, and 2011 has a drop before chinese new year that ended on chinese new year; that's 2/8. I could go on, but my point is that there isn't anything consistent on what's happening other than to say that 6 of the past 8 years had a drop some time between Dec and March. But those months are 1/4 of the year. There are drops here and there year round, so it means nothing to say 6 of 8 years there were drops between Dec-March.
I've also thought maybe nothing alone is evidence but combining pieces of information can together form evidence. But I haven't found anything that alone is not evidence, but put with something else is evidence.
So see, I have little I can actually call evidence of future price direction. Just google trends, steep dips, and very bad news. Do you know of anything else?
majorlee
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@samiswilf, oh man i did a huge reply and then TV threw up an error