thomasnh88

BTC - BULL TRAP - why I am not buying at +$10,000

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
We are still in a bearish trend/market - until we break the upper downward line.

I think we're in a bull trap, maybe the last one before we see a double bottom at $6000 or slightly lower (see yellow lines).

Then, I think we will see a rise to $7500, with a possible pullback where we will consolidate for a few months, before we gain new strength and start to go up again in a new bull trend/market.

What am I basing that off?

1) Price vs. volume .... Although we are seeing some bigger green candles on the moves, the overall volume is still low and doesn't indicate a new bull run by any means. To have a strong uptrends, volume should follow.

2) We are simply still trading inside the bearish channel on the daily and weekly. Until that is broken, a new (true) bullish trend isn't established.

3) We just had a parabolic run (10x)!!! Those do not come every week or month or year for that matter. The last parabolic run in BTC             was in late 2013... BTC             is following the same chart pattern as back then: a 70% retracement, a big bounce (current bull trap) and then further bearish movement to a total 82% retracement. That would put as at around $3000-4000. Not sure we will go that low - but a double bottom is very realistic.

4) Just about every "bubble" (which is really just the correction of a parabolic run) follows the same chart pattern - dotcom bubble in 2000 as well... it's a market cycle which has happened over and over again in history in many markets and it will repeat itself. Only out-of-this-world amazing news will change that. That's why their forms are pretty similar and it wouldn't be stupid to compare that current bullish trend to the bull trap of 2014 after the 2013 parabolic run or the dotcom bubble.

To sum up - I am not buying here or anywhere in $10,000's. We might see a move to $11,500 and touch the downward trend line or we might top here at $10,800... I don't know. We are good in the longterm, I believe in blockchain and the crypto space. But in the shorter term, we are going down to consolidate before next legs up.

Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!

Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
评论: I want to add: If in case we break the upper downward trend line at $11,500 ish, we still need to break $12,200 and $13,000 before a new bull trend is truly confirmed... if that happens and volume follows the move... I will be convinced that a new bull trend is taking place.

Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!

Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
评论: Here is a link that show exactly where we are compared to previous bubbles in BTC (and the dot com one). Great pattern recognition and nicely visualized.

评论: Strong selling coming in - that is something you don't want to see on a true bull run... Dropped through the immidiate upside channel trendline support, but still holding the overall trend until it break $9500.

I do believe the market needs breather and that way too many alts are overrated. And I do believe BTC has once again lead people into a bull trap.

Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!

Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
评论: Time for an update! Are we gonna break out of the bear market cycle or are going down?

Personally, I would be very surprised if it does breaks out of the $11.8-$12.2k resistance... It might do a fake-out though.

It does looks like some big players/ major forces wants it to go up - notice how has been pushed/"manipulated" at all critical levels of resistance on the ruse, where big buying comes in every time. I just think BTC and the overall market needs a breather after the parabolic run, which is why I think it needs to come down and consolidate more before it takes off again. That is just my opinion.

Disclaimer: I am holding fiat atm and although I would like to buy cheap BTC, a new bull run after breaking the bear market cycle would probably be better for making profits.

Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!

Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
评论: And it looks like I was right - it was a fake-out, a bull trap!

BTC dropping on huge volume, which is not a good sign and would not be happening if this was a true bull run. Biggest volume red volume since our new low at $6k. Look at the chart - that volume shows up at market TURNING POINTS. This is a turning point and we will head lower.

First target: $9200
And it looks like I was right - it was a fake-out, a bull trap!

BTC dropping on huge volume, which is not a good sign and would not be happening if this was a true bull run. Biggest volume red volume since our new low at $6k. Look at the chart - that volume shows up at market TURNING POINTS. This is a turning point and we will head lower.

First target: $9200
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And another dip has started
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thomasnh88 AntonioObrvan
@AntonioObrvan, Yup! I think we could see sub $10k today.... if not then tomorrow for sure, where we will probably test $9.5k... if that breaks, I think bull trap is confirmed and we go much lower.
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I have already made about 2k in profit in two days only with btc. Shorting it. I think your analysis may hold true .But for now why miss out on the money you can make!
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thomasnh88 CryptoBuzzAnalyst
@CryptoBuzzAnalyst, thanks for the comment... very true that money can be made. I am not in the shorting game, personally though. Just not my style! But enjoy the profits!
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I agree with your analysis. The low volume for current trend is a strong argument, which can be seen in detail with volume profile. It clearly shows < $4.4k did have had the most trades by far (both cumulative as per period and vs relative period of now) and where smart money from institutions have stepped in (around may-jun + nov-dec). This low volume, in my view, comes from the average joe buying at the top, panic sellers and a small group of daytraders-/scalpers + bots.

Every time bitcoin makes irrational moves (no pullbacks to at least 50%), it's making parabolic bull runs and comes back hard all the way down to test the first 50%, which then retraces from bottom to top 65-85%. I don't know why this keeps happening with crypto, maybe because of many uneducated and/or emotional traders, giving profit back or even losses to the experienced and patient trader.

We again see the fomo from the usual suspects which they did last time around the top. The masses are getting bullish again, while I've closed all scalp positions and sitting back in cash. Risk vs reward is not worth it for me at the moment.

Bitcoin doesn't like double bottoms for the lows on pullbacks, if we go down, I'm fairly sure we penetrate 6k without any problems right to 5k and maybe ending around 4.6k for consolidation, which I've to reevaluate further to make any further statements. I've yet to see capitulation, which the V reactions don't show, in fact the contrary, hence people got rekt by going against the trend/momentum (stopped out or even liquidated on their overleveraged positions). I'll be ready to short when the time comes and I won't be surprised next monday london time, when the big players go back to their offices, we see the first retracement if not a dump heading to 5k. This doesn't make any logical sense what's happening.

Remember, almost all of feb and may are known to be the worst months of stocks and cryptos. I can't say if we'll enter a bear market, I don't see it with sentiment and people who still need to step in (especially wall street who cannot join the unregulated space, other than futures in which they have no control of, makes no sense to them - although, a good fud story will be once again blamed for the correction and seen as the cause of a "crash", when in reality, it was all known by looking at the charts). If we do enter a bear market, I think bitcoin is done for, becoming obsolete, for ever, as it won't be worth it to mine it anymore, so the entire network will shut down and market price will plummet. I've always seen bitcoin as an experiment and it has succeeded now that everyone knows about it. Next to that, tech gets obsolete fast, we've got so many other coins that keep improving, then the next one will come out. It's good for trading though, not for investment and for sure not a store of value (you can smell anybody who disagrees in what stake they've).

Maybe one has to do DD and FA for quality projects with real businesses who got their paperwork and team in order to make the gains bitcoin has made, since the law of big numbers are already in effect and only this way and/or a consistent way of making profit in trading (the power of compounding: +2% daily + reinvesting/-trading makes 100% a month) are the only ways to get that 10000x return.

I've hoped this shed some light on the current situation as it unfolds in my view + your own critical thinking to make you a successful trader to enjoy your freedom and needs which you deserve.
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thomasnh88 cryptogast33
@cryptogast33, Nice analysis on the market. thanks for that and I wholeheartedly agree with you on the most part. I don't agree that BTC will become obsolete (at least not in the near future). But let's see how lightning network pans out. But yes, don't just assume anything... that it will go $100k or that it will go $0. Do your dd, keep a close eye on the overall market, learn the tech and don't just blindly HODL.
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I don't see the bull trap in the 2013 chart. Looks like it just V bottoms right out and heads up again. Am I blind?
Thanks for the TA. It's what I have been planning on so hope you're right.
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