Mycomorel35
做多

Bullish potential path

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
133 0 2
This is my first published idea and would enjoy any feedback you may have. With that said this is what I see.

Over the last few week we have completed what appears to be waves A and B of an ABC correction. Bitcoin's last two ABC corrections have corrected to the .786 but this B has fallen short of .618 which had me expecting further correction until this morning.
We are currently sitting in a bull flag at the 9600 level that should break up toward the 9840 level, this should complete a leading diagonal of wave 1.
From there a retrace to the 9100 level should take place as the market is getting oversold on RSI .
Using fib extension gives us a target of 1:1 at 10700 for wave 3. This also happens to be the edge of the downtrend channel . This would be an ideal area for a correction which would be wave 4.

Finally with BTC             last push up we should experience a flurry of buying as we break the downtrend channel and push wave 5 to the 2.618 ext. level at $13,000

We should then see a correction back to the .5 retrace which is also the outer edge of the downtrend channel (our now neckline of the inverse head and shoulders ) confirming the end of the downtrend and setting the base of wave 2 of the larger 5 wave as we make our way back toward $20,000.





As always I'm still new to trading so these are just ideas I see please don't take them as advice on how to trade.
评论: Looks like the potential wave on has completed just above my target and the potential wave 2 has completed just below my target. Now we shall see if this retracement holds it should complete here shortly around the 9400 level. If the retracement from that level sets a higher low we should know that this potential path is still in play. Word of warning this thing could always roll over and we could have just set wave 1 of our 3rd wave down. If that's the case I'll see you below 4700. Good luck to all you traders.
评论: And down it goes, First target 7200 second target 6000.
评论: This is a good example of the things I have to learn. Not so much about technical movement but more about emotional bias. Frustrations in a bear market has cost me not money but opportunity for gains. I should have notice the ABC pattern. A - 9000, B- 9300 and C down to 8742. Easy to see in hindsight but controlling emotion in the moment is something I have to work on.
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