DrDovetail

Bears break under wedge trendline, 200ema, and possibly 200 MA

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
The double bullish reversal hammers on the day chart the last few days turned out to be yet another bull trap by the bears. It was first evident when the second green hammer had hardly any volume coupled with it....but far more evident once the next days candle(yesterday) began forming a bearish engulfing candle giving a solid warning to sell. The bearish engulfing candle also didn't have any volume with it the day of the candle but as expected we are now seeing a huge impulse of bearish volume today taking us even further down now below the 200SMA. I do believe however the 200 MA has responded very well in the past to having acted as a support so there's still a slim chance we may see by the end of today's candle that the candle finds a way to close back above the 200SMA. I think if you look at the biggest bullish volume swell in BTCs history (September 15th) you will see the day prior to that candle it had a bearish volume spike around the size of the 2 we've seen in the last couple days. I also think once Bittrex and Binance open their doors back up to the public and bittrex allows for more USD pairings which is supposedly on the way, you're gonna see another big influx. We may dip potentially as low as the 5000s before that occurs though. So hodl with all your might, develop nerves of steel, and remember to look out for bull traps disguised as valid bull trends. Also if today's candle does close beneath the 200SMA mI expect because of that and because this was a valid bearish engulfing candle that a dip as far as the mid to upper 5,000s is possible. I'd say its well worth laddering in small amounts at 6500 though just in case we see a reversal sooner. Very small amounts maybe 10-20percent of your expendable capital. Also lastly, also very important to make sure that whentrying to time the bounce that there's also oversold conditions on the RSi and MACD on most of the different time charts.
评论: The candle has closed and took the more likely route of closing well below the 200 day Simple Moving Average....It closed at the next support line down on the fib retracement extension (the bottom grey line of the fib on the right) whether or not this grey line will hold as supprt for ur newest candle is uncertain but the bearish engulfing candle pattern of 2 days ago was confirmed so it's likely we have some more plummeting to do. Then again if you look back to what the day chart looked like back in september before the biggest boost in bitcoin's history, it looks somewhat similar...it started with a couple hammers and a doji then an engulfing candlethat came with a very similar bearish volume boost that we are seeing now then a huge green boost that put it in a bull market all the way until the all time high(with the usual retracements). Therefore we could see an even bigger rebound sometime soon with bitcoin but I'm currently not trading as it is at peak volatility right now and am instead holding. No New entries or exits for now.
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