Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's jump right into the chart. As you can see, I've drawn a bear flag over the current price action. Now, I have to admit, I'm still leaning bearish on the market right now. The charts are putting out a lot of mixed signals at the moment, which is to be expected, as the bulls try to put a bottom in this bear market. However, the more I look at BTC, the more I believe that more downside could be on the horizon. In fact, there is something on this chart that looks hugely bearish to me — the fact that we appear to be confirming the dashed green trendline as resistance. You cannot see the origin of this trendline on the chart, but it goes back to the beginning of the rally to the all-time high. In other words, the dashed green trendline has been supportive through the entire bull run. However, we just broke below it, and now we appear to be confirming it as new resistance. Additionally, BTC is in another bear flag consolidation pattern, under the green dashed trendline. You can see that this is the third bear flag, since the collapse from the triangle. Each former flag produced downside, so this one may as well. Also, you can see that the EXTREMELY RESISTIVE 50 EMA (in orange) is about to intersect with the bear flag price action. That could easily be the catalyst that sends BTC falling from the flag. Obviously, I have entertained the idea that this may not be a bear flag. We have a very nice bullish divergence on the MACD, signaling a widespread decline in underlying sell-side momentum, but that isn't enough to override or discredit the bearish factors. Just look at what has happened since the triangle breakdown. We've just been producing lower highs and lower lows. Until we see some higher lows and highs, and ESPECIALLY a break above the 50 EMA and the dashed green trendline, I simply cannot be bullish on BTC. From a bullish perspective, I like yesterday's bottoming action. But now, I need to see more evidence of a sustained reversal. Remember, a bounce doesn't end a bear market. The bulls have some work to do, if they want to convince the smart money to buy this market.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Thanks for your ideas. They're incredibly educational for a noob like me. At first, I didn't like you because I felt like you were pooping on my dreams. The truth is that you're a realist, and reality was pooping on my dreams. Anyway, thanks a lot. The more I read your ideas, the more I understand about TA.
dpr0x
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hey just wanted to say, there is a bearish divergence building since yesterday. we will def. go down
Everyone is HOPING for another dip because the KNOW BTC is incredibly bullish this year.... easily going back to 20K, we already had a 75% down bear market.... lol at everyone hoping for 6K just to buy back.... we are definitely not going back there. AT BEST you will get 7.5K
RustedValor
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@devilninja777, If you are still in the denial phase then we have much further to drop.
Snuby3
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@RustedValor, when I read his post I went ahead and sold everything lol. (jk)