This market is hard to analyze but I believe we are still bearish on BTCUSD for at least the next 1-2 weeks (coincidentally the Chinese New Year). If we do not break out, then this chart will be valid at least in the short term. Beyond 2 weeks on this chart is likely way off but I like to try and predict how a recovery will look. Post your comments below but again, if we don't break out of our falling wedge, we are heading to $4100.
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I realized after posting that you can't see the "Rocky Mountains" and "Great Plains" in the volume area to show the rise and fall of volume since December... in case you're curious what the "Appalachain Mountains" is for.
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It's amazing how a bearish idea can look so bullish. Still waiting to see what is going to happen in our little yellow circle.
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A little birdie pointed out the correlation between the MFI, Bollinger Bands, and spikes in price. In the recent days, every time the MFI dips and touches the lower band, it has almost always resulted in a decent spike in price of BTCUSD. Will we go down to $4100 still or are we going to confirm a reversal? We won't know for a while yet but this could definitely put a hamper on my plans to buy more at rock bottom.
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Looking at the MFI, we did receive that uptick that I called 16 hours ago. Take your profits now. The MFI is now higher than it has been since December 26. This is very concerning to me that may turn out to move downward very quickly. Set up some reasonable stop losses now.
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Obviously we are still moving up but be diligent. If we can't pass and sustain 9200 to 9250 we may drop like an elevator.
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We seem to be following the upper trend line so I ditched the lower and expanded a bit. Here's a larger view of some targets.
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As expected, we hit 8800 a few hours ago and I was able to sell some of my LTC at my target of $161. We're hanging around here a little longer than I expected but volume on gdax is super low on BTCUSD so I'd give it time before making any decisions. We would need bitcoin to go to 9500 to debunk my dip theory at this point.
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It looked like an inverted head and shoulders is forming on BTC. I'm still waiting on confirmation of breaking the $9k resistance level before making any harsh decisions. I'm taking this opportunity to take the fiat that I had sitting on the sidelines to get back into crypto. I'll likely short again if we head up to $9k and fail. There's always the chance we break resistance (or resistance gives up and lets BTC rise).