I see three possible targets:
Moderate: around 8100
Extreme: around 6100
Insane (not on chart): Around 4900 - Wave 5 of Wave C would be 1.61 of Wave 3, and retracement of 0.61 would be reached from the upward push to 19500$.
Wave 1: -1770$, 15h
Wave 3: -3450$, 23h
Wave 5: -5420$, 28h - which was 30% of value of BTC at the time
1) Moderate - 12000-12200
2) Extreme - 12600
After that we begin powerful wave 3 downwards.
Target for this wave should be around 9100.
It seems like our correction has one more leg to develop. Point of reversal should be: 11900 or 12300.
Finally, this boring period of consolidation has probably ended. Closest small rebound should be now at 10350 or a bit later, at 10350. Possible point of ending your short position or wait for reversal to re-enter.
We have now started the way downward, bigger target for now: 9200-9000
(1) 9000 - smaller wave reversal
(2) 7200 - bigger wave reversal
I think we have very nice point to end your shorts or do rebuy here, if you are adventurous. I'll post final targets for this correction when markets moves a bit.
Okay guys, prepare to end your sells or rebuys, the target should be 8000-7600, for some bigger wave correction.
Have in mind, that this part of correction is sharper than I have expected it to be, always wait for CONFIRMATION for ending your sells/rebuys. Candlesticks or divergencies are good point confirmation mechanisms.
In response to Artmen007 message, I thought that I would share with everybody:
"Artmen007: You were totally right in everything.
I want to ask did correction? it could be that we get close to 10,000 again and then another stronger wave dump in the area 6500-7200?"
Right now, it is hard to predict, but we still have very very bearish sentiment. As for me, the most probable option is:
1) Right now, we will have some small consolidation, so price goes sideways/slightly up.
2) After that, we may be heading very low - to around 5000. Watch out, because the panic sell will be very fast, if you want to catch the bottom.
3) After that, we should get some big bullish reversal FOR A FEW THOUSANDS UP.
So plan for action would be:
1) Aggressive - wait to the fall to begin, and buy your BTC at 5000-5400$. It is risky tactic, but there is 60-130% profit to be made over time.
2) Safe - wait for the price to stabilize after the fall and buy your BTC for some short-mid term hold.
3) DO NOT HOLD LONG TERM. We will not reach new ATHs in near future. It will happen, but BTC will still fall more after this 5k~ fall and rebound.
This time the top of the correction should be around 10100. After that we sail downwards.
Ok guys, it seems that this is it. This wave down looks very much like impulse. Right now we will have short consolidation, then we go to the cleaners.
FINAL TARGETS: 5300-4500.
Ok guys, I KNOW that I already said it - but, THIS IS IT. Situation seems a bit more dire than I have expected.
FINAL TARGET: 4300
There is also slight possibility, that we could go even to 3000, so if you plan a rebuy, you should wait - if it passes 4000 - it will turn around at 3000.
AFTER the fall, we will get BIG rebound. I mean B.I.G. When we will stabilize at the bottom, I will post the correction targets, but there is BIG chance for 100%+ if you buy at the bottom.
HOWEVER, HOWEVER, this is not the last bottom of the BTC, we will go lower, but it will take time. So if you plan for buying at the bottom to hold - think again, and after that - DON'T.
Since I am getting private messages about validity of 4k target 'Is that it?'. If you are asking this type of question 'Is that it?' then it is not it, often in this type of market movements when it ends - you will think that it will go to 0 - you see blood on the streets. The articles on the web will write about 'apocalypse'.
Structure looks very, very bearish. We might have reached the top of this corrective movement or we might move to around 9000.
Target: 4300, if it passes 4000 it might go to 3000.
This market looks like it starts to rebound. If this correction right now will be shallow, we should be going upwards - first target 11700.
I would still advise agains buying into bitcoin now. Although there is some volume, the market structure looks very corrective - just look at the time it took bitcoin to reach this 9500~ levels. I think that it can go 10500 and even 11700 and then we will see how it will react upon reaching this level.
If you want to buy - try to keep your SL tight.
Keep your eyes peeled for a short. We will soon have reversal at around 11000-11200, possibly 11700 (low probability). During the reversal we will be able to tell - if we go down to 4K~ or we go up higher and mark the target for the upward move.
Well, I called it. Just like clockwork, BTC had reversal at 11200. There are now three possibilities of development, so let's wait for the market to sort it out.
Ok, here are three scenarios that I think are possible:
1) BULLISH: Bitcoin falls to 9600 and then continues upwards (or sideways, then upwards).
2) BULLISH: Bitcoin falls to around 8100 and then continues upwards, to around 14000. Going below around 7500$ invalidates this - we will have scenario 3.
3) BEARISH: Bitcoin starts to fall to around 4100$. Going above 11200 invalidates this and we will have scenario 2 (or 1).
SHORTER TERM (up to two days)
1) Short till 9600 after this small rebound.
2) Wait for 9600 and rebound there, and if your guts tell you that we go lower, short till 8100.
3) Wait for BTC to breach 11300 and go long till 14000.
4) Wait for BTC to breach 7500 and go short till 4300.
(I think there is also second, but smaller possiblity: waves a and b from correction, are still part of the impulse and Wave C is actually Wave A, it would imply that BTC will retrace to 10400 before moving down. However, what I posted here on the picture is much more likely)
Actually, I have been bearish since I saw second failure to break 11700. You should have wrote comment back then. ;)
Therefore, I would: put SL at 9500 and now wait until ~8200 and finish order manually there, if you can watch the charts, or just set TP at 8300.
1) Crash to 5k was wave A, and now we are on the rise to around 13-15k, in three waves A-B-C. Wave A is finished at around 12k, now we are in wave B - which is flat composed of Waves ABC. We are now in the Wave C, of this flat. It will go to around 8300-7500. Then we go UP to 13-15k and then we crash very low.
2) Crash to 5k was wave A, return to 12k was Wave B, now we have begin 5 waves of Wave C, which will crash to around 2k.
Both of those options are still possible.