BTCUSD update: Price retests 11600 range low area in a dramatic bearish move, which in my opinion is an attractive area to look for position trade longs because this is where the weak hands are shaken out.
The 11600 area is a key level because it has been bought up from that point since mid December which makes it a significant range low. It is also just above the 10988 to 8656 support zone which is the .618 area relative to the recent broader bullish structure measured from the 5400 low.
What makes this area attractive for position trade longs? A position trade is more like an investment. It looks to capitalize on the broader trend which in these markets is still bullish. When a short term reaction such as a panic spike occurs, and it takes price into extreme levels, this is often where the inexperienced investors get pushed out of their positions for a number of reasons.
There are two ways to go about getting into a position in a situation like this. First, you can just place a limit order at a lower price such as 11500 and see if the bearish momentum continues to new extreme lows. The more extreme the push, the more of a chance it reverses back up. The second thing to do which is more conservative is wait for some price stability to return which can come in the form of a higher low. Waiting for stability means you will not get the best price, but momentum will be more favorable.
As far as my plan, I still have a position from 13150 that I plan to hold. I am also looking at this panic as an opportunity to add, but since momentum is extreme at the moment, I want to see if price can get inside the 10968 to 8656 zone and add more around there. If I was not long from 13150, I would look to initiate a position around current levels because in the long term, this is a buying opportunity.
In summary, now you know why I always write about locking in some profits at highs. Also be careful not to get caught up in all the hype and extreme predictions. When buying into a sell off, it has to be done with carefully thought out position sizing and NO margin. Anything is possible in these markets, and although I do not believe it will retrace back to 5K, you want to keep risk under control just in case, and fractional sizing is the best tool to achieve that kind of control. Conditions like this offer great prices for the longer term investor which is a function of the larger magnitude support levels that price is testing at the moment. Remember, when markets look their worst, that is often the best time to buy, but it has to be done in a way that always accounts for the risk.
We've broken below 11k. My Elliott Wave counts show that we have completed a very broad wave 1, and that we are in the midst of a wave 2 correction which can be very deep. My targets for this correction are the 8k-10k range (0.618 to 0.5 fib). I'm going to wait this one out. It feels there has been too much euphoria around these markets as of late and this coupled with what EW analysis is pointing to I think is a recipe for a deeper correction.
Artjomka
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@dalmazio, can you show the wave counts on a chart?
@dalmazio, I agree with most of your chart as I have it pretty much the same. One difference though... it seems like you started your Fib at 0.0000, as in, at Zero dollars... rather than at the spot where Sub Wave ((1)) started which we can't actually see on this chart.
My question then... where (at what dollar value and what month and date) did you place the beginning of the Wave and the Fib???
Thanks... cheers.
dalmazio
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@ABear, that's because what I've labelled (I) is the completed genesis wave, starting from zero. Subwave ((1)) has the same starting point as completed genesis wave (I), namely, zero.
ABear
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@dalmazio, Thanks, dalamzio... I kinda figured but I can’t see it... so it was hard to tell at what dollar or cents level it was started at considering the scale and all:)
Artjomka
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@dalmazio, Thanks! it seems btc has hit the target area (C). Does this meen the 2nd wave correction is over or does it continue with a D & E further downwards?
dalmazio
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@Artjomka, That's difficult to know. It has hit the target area, but it's quite possible that we could still move down deeper into the target area, approaching the 0.618 fib or 8k region. Especially when we consider: 5 & 10 day MA are sloping downwards => bearish, RSI is below 50 => bearish, and buyer action has been luke warm => bearish. These factors make me think we will be flirting with the target area for some days, perhaps going deeper into it, and establishing a double bottom.
arvincash88
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weak hands? pfftt, i got strong hand and an empty bank account right now.
MrDaveWiltshire
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@arvincash88, maybe not as strong as you thought then