On June 12th ETH begun a major correction that would see it retrace from a high of $412 USD to a low of $140 USD: a ~60% fall to the 0.618 fib.
Right now, BTC seems to be undergoing a very similar correction. I've highlighted the fractals between the ETH bull run and eventual correction vs the BTC bull run and potentially inevitable correction. The similarities are quite stark, and the more indicators you reference, the similar it appears eg. The RSI bottoming out, the 20 and 50 day moving averages boxing in the current price etc etc.
The reason that similarities like this can play out across assets and time, is that one thing remains constant: the human psychology of fear and greed.
I've highlighted an area between the 0.618 and 0.786 fibs as a potential correction target. This also aligns with the last major correction that BTC had support, other than the area we currently find ourselves. If ETH past is BTC prologue, then it will likely take a couple of weeks to find the bottom.
Right now, BTC seems to be undergoing a very similar correction. I've highlighted the fractals between the ETH bull run and eventual correction vs the BTC bull run and potentially inevitable correction. The similarities are quite stark, and the more indicators you reference, the similar it appears eg. The RSI bottoming out, the 20 and 50 day moving averages boxing in the current price etc etc.
The reason that similarities like this can play out across assets and time, is that one thing remains constant: the human psychology of fear and greed.
I've highlighted an area between the 0.618 and 0.786 fibs as a potential correction target. This also aligns with the last major correction that BTC had support, other than the area we currently find ourselves. If ETH past is BTC prologue, then it will likely take a couple of weeks to find the bottom.
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Although the small timeframes show BTC as fairly bullish, the larger timeframes continue to show a bear pennant.
I'd keep a close eye on this:
I'd keep a close eye on this:
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So it looks like BTC, at least for the time being, is out of the danger zone.
It made a nice new trendline to work from. Lets keep an eye on things over the next couple of days because the RSI is now in the overbought territory on the daily; which in and of itself isn't terrible, but is something to watch.
For now, I'm going to consider this analysis invalidated.
It made a nice new trendline to work from. Lets keep an eye on things over the next couple of days because the RSI is now in the overbought territory on the daily; which in and of itself isn't terrible, but is something to watch.
For now, I'm going to consider this analysis invalidated.
交易结束：到达目标:
So much for being invalidated!
I should have been more aware of the bull-trap potential; something which caught a lot of people out!
Even though the 6k target has been reached, I believe there is more downside potential. Follow my new idea here:
I should have been more aware of the bull-trap potential; something which caught a lot of people out!
Even though the 6k target has been reached, I believe there is more downside potential. Follow my new idea here:
There are starting to be a number of bear patterns on BTC that point to a low of 6k-8k; which is enough to take this very seriously.