I have seen dozens of charts for Bitcoin of people using a 1h - 4h chart to tell the long term trend of bitcoin.....Which doesn't make sense to me. This chart shows you Bitcoin's trend since 2015. I'm using a 1 week candle which makes perfect sense to me.
Anyway, enough with that. The chart above shows you the lines/levels that the RSI reacts to. Also the points where the MACD indicates a new trend. IF anyone out there tells you that we are in a bullish cycle now, with all respect... IGNORE him.
The RSI is going to hit the previous support line thats a fact not a forcast. So that's more price correction (Price will fall more). Also the 1 week MACD is agreeing with the statment above (more correction).
So, instead of asking around if correction is over, use this chart as a reference, if you see a bounce from the support line in the RSI, then you know that we are in a new uptrend wave. Use RSI along with MACD, and these two indicators will clearly show you the trend. You can use these support/resistance lines even for the next couple of years for BTC.
If you see anyone out there saying that correction is over; Tell him look at the 1 week candle chart.
I'm using two of the most fundamental indicators that can be used, thats all you need to tell a long term trend. No need for channels, triangles, and predictions.
DCFreak.
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To clarify... Bitcoin is bearish until that RSI support line is touched. After that, using MACD, RSI, and price support levels we can tell what the next move and whether the bearish trend is over or not.
I just felt the need to post this idea as I saw a lot of bullish charts and people saying the price will reach 20k in a couple of days and so on.. Personally I'm out of the market until this RSI line is touched. Feel free to do whatever you feel comfortable with. Just had to show you some tricks that you can use in the future without waiting for someone telling you what the trend is.
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So Here is a quick update, The MACD is at the critical point that we need to watch out for as mentioned in the idea above!
Will keep you updated
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Two scenarios for the MACD:
1) Death Cross: A much stronger downtrend. 2) Golden Cross: Uptrend.
This week determines everything.
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We are at a very crucial level. If it goes below the previous lows, we are looking at 8k$ or even lower.
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Don't ask me questions about this... It's just for the sake of it.
YOU THE BEST! WELL SAID and way to put the impatient permabulls on blast!!! They tend to get ahead of themselves and imagine things! You said it right and market can fall 2500 points from here easily.
Thank you for the insight! Your explanation was very detailed. Always looking forward to your post!
Jonahsin
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So if RSI hit support line, bitcoin will correct, altcoins prices will drop as well?
DCFreak
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@pureeme, So the idea of this post is that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend movement. If you are expecting Bitcoin to start a new cycle towards 25k or 50k, it didn't start yet.
RSI is showing that in order for BTC to reach the support line, more sell off will happen. (RSI shows if something is overbought or oversold)
Also the MACD can be used as an indicator for trend, and according to the MACD above, its a downtrend still.
So yeah, that could mean that BTC will drop in price a little bit more, which can affect alts.
MrRenev
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I cancelled my orders around 10k because it looked bad, the price was dropping from 10300-10400 only didn't think there was a good chance it goes far, so risk to reward seemed weak.
Was I truly wrong thought? That bounce to 10800 was completely unpredictable to me.
I could have looked at rsi and bounce volume and HH HL & rode the wave, but as someone with a job I can't watch things that closely all the time sigh.
DCFreak
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@MrRenev, Don't chase a trade.
You can't hold the stick in the center. Determine if you are a day trader and have the time to do it, or if you are a long term trader.
Long term traders can switch to short, but short can't switch to long term.
Most of my charts, specially for BTC are 1D candle charts for a reason. I don't pay attention to the price each min, because I don't care. I'm a long term trader and will take profits in short term if the situations change.
creck
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just wanna thank you, keep up the good work, good and clear TA. easy to understand, great !!