diederikdehaas

Short term top/bear in Bitcoin? (before going back up)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
My first time publishing a review/idea, let's see how it works out :)

Last couple of days I've seen several times that what once was support became resistance on the hourly chart. Combine that with the momentum indicators showing a divergence for some time now, ie price making new highs, but RSI/MACD not, but instead making lower highs and lower lows.
And now there's also a Head & Shoulder pattern with the neckline around $4200 with a target of $3900.

There is a good chance that the neckline will hold as right now, there needs to be 1300 BTC             sold to get to $4141, which is below the neckline but I do consider that strong support. Unlike on GDAX/Coinbase, the support (and resistance) tends to be real on Bitstamp (vs fake on GDAX). It's also not uncommon for BTC             to have a fake breakout (both upwards and downwards) and the $60 gap between the neckline and major support on the books could be just that.

The longer timeframe (price) charts don't show anything to worry about yet, although the momentum indicators do show some weakness. But for the longer timeframe to get bearish , you'd first need to have the short once to turn bearish .
We also have had a HUGE bull run, more then 2x in a month!, so it would be healthy for the market to get a pullback.
The pull back could go as far as $3000 and thereby making the former resistance support, but it would make me uncomfortable if it actually went that far.

There are also some fundamental reasons which make me a bit cautious, but I won't go into that here/now.

All in all, an excellent time to take some profit and let the market figure out what it wants to do next, before going back in (fully) again.

I do expect that the uptrend will continue after that as it has broken the/my 1.618 Fibonacci line. What I often see is that when such a level is broken is that you see a pull back before going up again towards the next resistance.
评论: I want to add the daily chart so you'll see the long term trend and my Fibonacci levels, but I don't know how to do that. If you do, please leave a comment telling me how :)
评论: There's a reasonable chance that the downturn, with a low of $3965, is already over. But there is currently a 600+ BTC sell wall on GDAX, non-fake this time, that needs to be eaten through, so that may be 'some' resistance ;-)
ZH 简体中文
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 繁體中文
首页 股票筛选器 外汇信号搜索器 加密货币信号搜索器 财经日历 如何运作 图表功能 网站规则 版主 网站 & 经纪商解决方案 插件 图表库 功能请求 博客 & 新闻 常见问题 帮助 & 维基 Twitter
个人资料 个人资料设置 账号和账单 我的支持标签 联系支持 已发表观点 粉丝 正在关注 私人消息 聊天 退出