Hajamu

Is The Sky Falling...Yet?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
There is no doubt BTC             is in an uptrend right now! But the question is for how long will this trend last? Markets have cycles, nothing will go up continuously and BTC             is not excluded from this fact. Right?

Being relatively new to the cryptocurrency markets I have always wondered if I started too late? And the answer is no, the technology isn't going anywhere a matter of fact it is just getting started. The fact remains though that the market is overbought. And needs some room to grow. Right?

So in answer to the question posed by my title... Is The Sky Falling? No, not now, but it will. It might be a quick visit downward (like on 7-10 and 9-11) or an extended downward trend (2013-2015). The truth is we do not know anymore than what the charts are indicating. I personally would not buy at our current prices to invest long term. Much of our current price increase is due to what I call "Fork Envy", folks just buying up BTC             to get an equivalent amount of BTG             . Allot of our current gains are not instigated by new money entering the markets but from folks closing positions on Alts to add to their BTC             positions. It is not a bad strategy, you better believe I have Fork Envy! This newly made BTG             will possibly end up right back into BTC             further driving the prices up. But will it be sustainable? Is it all artificial gains? What does it all mean?!

I have no definite idea! Let me know what you all think? Volatile times we live in...Good luck.

Keep the Stop Loss tight,

Peace
评论: I would like to take a moment of silence for our dear friend BTC...His top got blown clean off. I would also like to take a moment to say, purely after the fact, that I called it! Say it coming! Lol

But in all seriousness, I hope you all did keep your stoplosses tight and did not invest at yesterday's highs as my post warned. We are currently in a downtrend. The RSI has crossed over into bear territory, meaning it is now using the 20-30 range as support and the 55-65 level as resistance (Indicated on the above chart as the two red lined areas). When the RSI is using the 40-50 range as support and the 80-90 level as resistance the market in an uptrend. Trend lines and RSI are the basics of technical analysis. Anyone else learning I recommend starting here and for more experienced folks I recommend reading Technical Analysis for the Trading professional.

But do not fear all! Money can be made in abundance in all markets. Nothing will go straight up or down. I do not recommend it in this market but you can always trade off of the ups and downs. watch for a good entry point.

And keep an eye on the trend and RSI for a possible reversal of the current trend. Good luck!

Keep the Stop Loss tight,

Peace
评论: All of the above on the 15 minute Chart*

The 1 hour and 5m chart RSI may have gained some support after briefly crossing under 40 bearish support levels. The 4 hour timeframe is just now testing the the top of the 50. The 1 day 1 week and 1 month are all still pretty high. All in all it may just be a temporary blip.

Never forget to include multiple timeframes in your analysis to better see market behaviour from different angles and short term vs long term stances. Let me know what you all think.
评论: In close to this topic. I wanted to note that the drop in bitcoin's price I forewarned completed on 11/12 when bitcoin retraced to 5700s. The overbought status of the RSI on the 1D chart was relieved right down to the points I had marked on my chart from previous ATH resistances. And now Bitcoin is closing i9n on 10K. Just 14 days later. Incredible! Never count BTC out.

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