candleindawind

2014 CRASH COULD HELP PREDICT HOW 2018 WILL PLAY OUT!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
This chart is just too perfect. The time-adjusted overlay of the 2014 crash with the current bear trend matches spot on. If it continues to play out it suggests a rally to ~12k before making new lows and eventually a nice round bottom before starting the next big bull run in 2019. Going to keep following this and will post updates. Happy trading!
评论:
评论: Over a month later, the fractal is still spot on. Had to adjust the time a bit, but the idea that experimenting with fractals to give an idea of what could possibly happen in the future is like "reading tealeaves" as one comment suggests is silly. The purpose of TA isn't to scientifically determine exactly what will happen, it is to give traders tools to INCREASE their PROBABILITY of making accurate calls. I don't know how you could look at this chart and not, at the very least, acknowledge that the fractal is remarkably similar and has been a useful tool over the last couple months to help figure out where the market might go.

Fundamentals are certainly different now than in 2014, but when you start trying to rationalize or explain what you see on your charts using fundamentals, you dilute your TA and create a useless hodgepodge of analysis that tries to guess the weight that TA and fundamentals should each play. Instead, I like to purely trade the charts and assume that all fundamentals are already factored into them.
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评论:
评论: Sharing this updated version of the 2014 bear fractal for everyone who's been watching it. It's important to remember fractals like this are far from exact science, but it continues to look pretty damn accurate with this breakout of the descending wedge we've been in since 11.7k. This entire move was basically a giant short squeeze as shorters began to get complacent. Although there has obviously been large amounts of (promising) accumulation taking place, the reality is that there's still very little real buying pressure. I do think its likely that we will now test the log resistance from the highs once again, riding on the back of the momentum from this massive short squeeze. I remain quite pessimistic, however, about the possibility that we break through the log resistance on this try given current market conditions and technicals.

***I do say all this with one semi-large "meme fractal caviat" that I think should also be taken into consideration. I'm about to post a new chart detailing this so look for that as well if you're interested ***
Thanks for this - good work and look forward to re-visiting.
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Not going below $5000, too many USD whales are aware of Bitcoin's value now.
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How did you do this overlay? I kind of agree with this overall take. Great job.
+4 回复
@earthmover, if you click on the long position icon on the left toolbar in tradingview, there's a "bars pattern" button. Glad you liked the chart!
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fundamentals are as much different as they can be. this is basically like reading tealeaves.
+4 回复
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