nLucic

BTC - Inverse Cup & Handle? Moment of Truth!!!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
We are literally coming down to the wire with BTC             on whether we rise or fall further. I am unsure which way to lean at this time. But, the answer could come out in the next 12-24 hours.

Pros:
Bulls are still fighting strong and attempting to break the $9.4K resistance. It is worrisome that we failed to break prior high in this uptrend, but the support is still alive as we have yet to break the overall uptrend channel lows. It appears that we are still headed up at this time, and we are getting extremely close to the moment of truth. This next run up could very well confirm a break of the overall downtrend channel , or the start of a new bull run. It could be within the next few hours or days. Be very careful trading here and patient if you are waiting for an entry. Your options are if BTC             breaks resistance, that signals a buy. If it fails again, that may signal a sell or hold.

Cons:
When zooming out into the daily and hourly one can draw an inference that we are in a potential inverse cup and handle situation (FOMO buying in September-December could be the reason it is not as evident). The handle seems very real to me, and the fact that we failed to break the prior high in this uptrend channel leads me to believe that a failed attempt to crack over $8.9K here means we are headed back down in the overall downtrend. From the hourly it appears we are in a rising wedge , which generally means a reversal of the uptrend. In addition, if we fail to break and fall that will confirm the rising wedge , and could signal a possible test at the neckline of the cup & handle if we are in one.

This is for educational purposes, I am not a financial adviser and am just learning the markets much like anyone else. Just trying to see both sides of the equation here and prepare a plan for both.

Please leave feedback if you have any comments. Thank you!



评论: We are heavily bullish at the moment with BTC break through a major resistance that was set at $9K. Every single news piece that has come out has been positive for BTC! Futures has expired and we will want to look at where new positions will be placed by stakeholders to determine market sentiment for BTC through Feb and March.

However, please be careful: until we break a major resistance at $9.4K there is still a possibility for a continuation of downtrend. $10K is also a very psychological price point for people as they will test whether or not it is worth buying, with people who bought the dip and above contemplating whether or not they should sell their positions. Weekly and monthly charts still show we are in an overall downtrend so it is still kind of risky entering the market.

If you decide to trade have a tight stop loss, ride waves and take when in comfortable profit. Do not be afraid to sell in profit, and just because a coin continues to go up do not FOMO buy. Profit is profit at the end of the day, and nothing is guaranteed until BTC breaks major downtrend resistances and displays bullish signs.
交易结束:到达目标: BTC hanging above downtrend line. At this time we are bullish. Slow growth and stability is a good thing as it allows more investors to enter the market who are risk averse. $10K is still a very psychological level that was passed in December from pure FOMO (people spreading crypto talk on family holidays). If we can pass that, alts will follow and we should have a good month of March! Let's hope we can continue with this momentum and have a profitable month. For now I am closing this trade and will update BTC with a new chart when TA suggests new signals arise.
that is a damn big cup.. I'm not really with you on that one. Fundamentals let me think that BTC is not going further down than it was before.. but the cup would tell that it keep heading below 6k in a bearish continuation
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nLucic sebastian.soik
@sebastian.soik, I know haha, but if you think about it's only about a 5-6 month cup. Sometimes it takes longer for stocks to form their cup. I hope it isn't correct, but I do fully expect a run or another correction very, very soon. Side note: One thing that is very interesting to me is how the timing of this moment fits so well with futures end date and Chinese New Years.
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