A big mistake in Elliott Wave analysis is doubting yourself that a pattern developing would be so big that your bias says "it can't" or "that's an extremely slim possibility" and you rule out the count.
This is a possibility to the down-side right now. Keep in mind several forks are highly likely in 2 weeks! We can't predict what that means for price action. However, with Elliott Wave as tool and idea of where sentiment is right now and how a significant fork might affect sentiment, calling for a significant decline - in wave 3 fashion - after a series of 1-2 waves is completely in the realm of possibility and now I'm considering it as highly likely. Additionally, it fits right into my big picture count that I've stuck to trying my best to remain objective and not allow for (bullish) bias.
Going back to my message at the top, with more of the big picture developed, it possible to count the sideways movement during 2015 as a series of 1-2 waves developing for a HUGE rally. (See 'Entertaining the Bull' chart linked below in related ideas.) At the time, I thought that was too bullish too soon... lesson learned. Whichever count ends up to true, five waves at high degree are complete (or nearly complete if the triangle interpretation wins and a return to the 100-300 level is what the wave counts suggest. We are at the top of 'The Arithmetic Bull vs The Log Bear'.
Quoting once again from my 'Long-term Bullish, but not now #Bitcoin' chart, "#Bitcoin may need to "die" just one more time, so that it can live forever." twitter.com/VinnyLingham/status/875160374487597056
The "death of bitcoin" will signal the next great buying opportunity.
Sometimes, when we focus on the minutia level, we lock in a view. I myself gave up on the triangle perspective a while back. We both seem to view this 2980 high as a Primary 3 or III. Given the price change of Wave I - Wave II corrected from 1000ish to 157.5 a few years back, and that it was deep and a zig-zag at the macro level, I have been holding to a shallower combination correction view here in what I believe to be Wave IV. But the BIP148 vs SegWit2X vs UAHF (BitMain) uncertainty can lead to a variety of difficult to forecast outcomes, not the least of which is price. But in the larger picture, will BTC hardfork, as did Ethereum, into ETH and ETC? If so, what then of price, and count?
Kappy
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@RogueDave, My primary count is that we are at the top of wave B of an ABC expanding flat pattern unfolding from the 2013 high. (ref: Long-term Bullish, but not now #Bitcoin) This I support with my analysis that includes Mt. Gox data in which you can see a clear five wave rise on arithmetic and log scale.
I believe that was Cycle wave I. What is unfolding now is Cycle wave II. I think the forks you mention will be the news that follows the sentiment driving prices down to the extreme - "death of bitcoin." That is appropriate sentiment for the bottom of Cycle wave II and would indicate that the bottom is likely in. Expecting this type of sentiment extreme at the bottom supports my view that this is a wave II rather than a wave IV. That I hope clarifies my stance, otherwise our analyses are closely aligned. I haven't done any charting on Ethereum so I have no comments there.
RogueDave
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@Kappy, Thanks for the added perspective that Mt. Gox data brings to the macro view.
Kappy
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@RogueDave, I think it's the most overlooked factor for big picture analysis on Bitcoin.
RogueDave
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@Kappy, Bitstamp does have the late 2011 thru 2014 price history, and I included it in my count to generate my perspective of W I, W II, and WII, to bring us to the current correction, W IV. So while it doesn't have the absolute earliest price data from 2011, enough is still there to not affect the count thru late 2013 Wave I peak.
That the 2980 high would be the wave B high to an expanded Flat Correction seems to defy logic, and Flats having a 3-3-5 pattern. The rise from 152 to 2980 doesn't segment well into an A-B-C, (unlike the descent from 1163 to 152). As such it is not a perspective I had considered previously. Flats, to my understand, shouldn't be that deep, nor to soar so greatly above the former high. A resource I have holds that the wave B portion of even an expanded fan expanded flat shouldn't top 138% of wave A.
Moreover, given the approximate 90% retracement from the Nov 2013 1163 high to the Jan 2015 152 low, and a nice clean Zig-Zag is present, I hold that, Wave II bottomed at 152. Hence my count of a Wave III peak at 2980, and my outlook including the Alternation guideline for a Flat in the current correction, triangles seem to out of the running, except as part of a combination.
Do you have an online link to a reference showing a Flat can be 90% retracement, in wave A, a new high of almost 200% of the original high for wave B, and some other descent for wave C? It's truly a perspective I have never come across in 20 years plus of exposure to Elliott Wave analysis.
nakov
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@RogueDave, so, are we in wave 4 or wave 2? If it is wave 4 and based on past experience of fractal growth of Bitcoin, how long in your opinion until we get to Wave 5 combustion?
RogueDave
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@nakov, In my opinion, BTC is in Wave IV (some believe wave 4). Other analysts have other opinions. There is no specific time measure, or fractal measure, it is more a function of emotional measure. The key driver of emotions right now is the lead up to BIP148 (UASF) and/or SegWit2x and/or a UAHF (Bit Main). And after that, it will be concerns about the timing of a hard fork, 3 months further on out. So I see another 3-6 months of correction. It will not be all downward, at some point I'm expecting a significant upward move before completing the correction in either a lateral triangle (lower fear), or higher fear about the hard fork could cause massive selling in which case it would be a Zig-Zag downward.
That's all playing out right now. The only certain hard date is July 31/Aug 1, when BIP148 and/or SegWit2x are supposed to activate. A UAHF may occur first, it may occur after. Within SegWit2x is a separate user activated hard fork. That is supposed to kick in a 3-6 months after SegWit2x, depending on who you read.
So yeah, it's a mess, and uncertainty will be around, in greater or lesser degrees for a few months yet.
nakov
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@RogueDave, thank you, you seem more informed than I am. I know Jimmy Song's opinion and I mostly agree with it. So basically we are in wave IV, as you confirmed. It is characterised a wave of chaotic upside and downside and strong corrections in each direction. And it is generally shorter than wave III according to Elliott. I believe we started wave III with the impulse of BTC halving last year in May-June. Wave III lasted exactly 1 year. I hope Wave IV will last 3-8 months, i.e. that Wave V comes this fall, next spring or worst case next fall (autumn 2018). What do you think?
Again, what do you think about it, and the quality of the analysis?
Thank you!
Kappy
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@RogueDave, My primary issue with the wave III count is - How does wave (A) or (1) in your chart count as an impulsive five waves without breaking any rules?
This simplified chart shows how I see this rise as an A-B-C rally.
I am not familiar with 138% being a rule. I don't believe this in the Elliott Wave Principle? Using a monthly log scale view, I would argue this ABC correction is proportional for wave II relative to wave I. If this were a wave III top and wave IV is unfolding now, there is not much room for IV not to overlap I in terms of proportionality. Although the retracement is greater than 78.6%, I believe only viewing this in percentage terms is skewed because of the starting point - going from 0.01 to 0.02 is a 100% gain, going up to 1,163 is a 116,300% gain, but down to 152 is only a 86.9% loss. A flat correction does not call for price to go significantly lower than the 152 low. In fact, it could be the same or truncated. Proportionally this fits.
RogueDave
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@Kappy, Herre is the beginning of my Wave III, through Wave 1 & 2. What rules does it break? Using Log Scale to include all data from time zero, (2011), in my opinion is obscuring your view of the larger picture. EWI's description of Elliott's Motive wave characteristics is at the link. elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics2.htm