BTCUSD update: New low made at 8342 which has taken price through the 9280 support and the 8659 reversal zone boundary as bearish momentum persists. Now that the market has made a decisive move, and compromised important levels, it is now reasonable to consider the possibilities of a range bound environment.
As I wrote in previous reports, in order to go long, the market must prove itself. Although it showed some temporary signals of strength, like hesitant price action, potential reversal bars, etc, the proof to go long never materialized. What matters most is how a candle closes and I pointed this out specifically in my previous report. And on this time frame, which carries a lot of weight, the closes have been bearish.
With that being said, the lower price goes, the more attractive it becomes to buy. Even though it went below the 8659 extreme support boundary, it is attempting to retrace. Also just below that is the 8174 to 4983 major support zone which is relative to the .618 of the entire bullish structure of this market. Even if price pushes into this zone, I will be looking to add to my long position.
Keep in mind, this market has now established a lower low relative to the 9208 low, but has plenty of support and room to reverse which makes this market more susceptible to gyrating within a broader range. Especially now that price is overlapping the Wave i territory. The other level to monitor is the 9616 trend resistance (.382 of recent bearish swing) which will continue to adjust lower until the market establishes a low. Once price closes above this level, often that is a confirmation that the next bullish leg is in progress, otherwise bearish momentum is in play.
In summary, do not over react and do not get sucked into the internet hype machine that looks to capitalize on out of comfort zone moves like this. Instead, put it into perspective and recognize what is ahead, and what needs to happen in order for an attractive buying opportunity to materialize. Buying fundamentally strong markets during times of weakness is a best practice, but you do not just buy because the market is pushing a low. You wait for a reversal at a high probability level. Price is hovering at such a level, and has an even more attractive area just below. Let the market prove itself, or stay out of its way. I do not short these markets, but if I could, I certainly would NOT be looking to get short now, especially near the reversal zone boundary. I am still holding my position trade long, and waiting patiently to add as more attractive prices become available.
BTC is not "fundamentally strong" at all. It's got the worst fundamentals of any Crypto in the world. It's hash power is controlled by two billionaires out in China. The developers can't reach consensus on anything or make any meaningful forward progress. You know why? Because they're volunteers! They don't get paid! Why would they put out a product as good as a paid team of developers ?
And they know the whole system is corrupted anyway. It's rediculous that people still don't know or understand how BTC works or what's going on below the surface.
H4m3d
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LOL we see how the capitalistic approch has done so well for life and the planet so please keep telling us how awsome it is
dustyPH
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You have a price zone from 8100 - 4900?! A difference of 3K!! WOW! Anyone can throw those kind of numbers out... hum "And below that is 4982 - 1979" I suppose is what you would say next?!?
@renanbarros, wow, nice one... and I quote, "Also just below that is the 8174 to 4983 major support zone which is relative to the .618 of the entire bullish structure of this market."
Hum, Like I said, anyone can call out those kind of numbers.
neamtuioan
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I think we should wait to see what is coming. IMHO the fall is not over yet, it just took a pause...
UnknownUnicorn1884170
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"Buying fundamentally strong markets during times of weakness is a best practice"
The problem is that the market is NOT strong anymore. And evidently bearish since the fall in January.
In order to improve, coinmarketcap has to rise a lot. Now volume is needed. But how can the volume get bigger if people are losing trust in crypto?
Woolfman
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@bostjan_ruski76, Very simple. Wait until it reaches bottom. I wouldn´t invest in it atm, I believe we´re still to touch 6500 again, maybe even 4500 by end of March, which would be a "healthy" value imo. Then sideways movement will kick in and eventually trust comes back. I don´t expect BTC to come up to 20k before Xmas again.
UnknownUnicorn1884170
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@Woolfman, 6500 or even 4500 is a big fall from current price. I would like to be proved wrong, but I don't see btc being 20k ever again. The hype is long gone, the regulators, governments are pushing stronger and stronger, and in such climate there is also less volatility, hence the bearish market.
Don't get me wrong - I am still in the game, but the market is falling. Maybe realistic prices are those from before 12months ago.
Woolfman
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@bostjan_ruski76, The memories of people are shortlived. There will be new people entering the market, as soon as we´re sideways for some time. I don´t think this is the end already...4500 sounds reasonable if Moore´s Law can be applied to BTC as well - we will know it after the correction has ended. That´s why I am still positive for 4500 as the bottom end. If not, then we will have a better idea of this market.
And they know the whole system is corrupted anyway. It's rediculous that people still don't know or understand how BTC works or what's going on below the surface.