BTCUSD Update: Interesting turn of events now that Segwit2X was conveniently cancelled. With no incentive for free money, why isn't this market falling apart? It just needs a push. I will explain.
I was not aware of the news when I published yesterdays report, but I was aware of the price action. After I found out, I looked up some articles and you really need to consider the sources. There are all kinds of random, uneducated nonsense articles out there that are being published to generate page views to justify higher ad revenue. Knowing that Segwit2X has been cancelled is useful, but everything else? Clearly these are not market technicians writing these articles.
Also someone pointed out that interest in this market is at all time highs. The institutions want in, the CME is introducing a futures contract, and it is just a matter of time before the SEC approves an ETF for the mainstream to invest in. In the long run, these are bullish fundamentals for sure, but for the short term? This is a sign of a top. New traders and investors do not understand the contrarian point of view, but it basically says, "The crowd is always wrong at major turning points." All markets work this way, it is a pattern of the herd mentality. We are programmed to think in terms of logic, but markets do not work in obvious and logical ways, they are irrational which is why we must always be open for anything.
It is also worth mentioning that when the futures and/or ETFs start trading, it is going to constrain the short term opportunities in this market because futures and securities are regulated. I don't know how the developer community is going to propose and cancel forks in a regulated environment.
Here are the facts right now: A double top is present on the larger time frames which is a bearish sign. 5 of 5 Waves are likely complete, another bearish sign. The 7900 level was a price extension coming from a major low, often these levels serve as completion points (wrote about this in my previous reports). If the market is going to retrace to a much deeper level, it is now in position to begin that decline. What is missing is the catalyst. All this market needs is a push which can be some kind of news of government action, etc.
I am not one to paint rocks (in contrast to rockets), but retesting the 5700 area is not that unreasonable. A break below that and the 5k level is also very possible. These levels would actually be a normal and healthy retrace if you observe them on the weekly chart. The first thing that needs to happen is the break of 6900 swing low. If that level holds, or does a false break (a fake out) near that area, this market may just be consolidating instead of selling off sharply.
Also the alts got a boost on this news. ETH, and a bunch of the cheap ones are all up nicely which shows that the current state of the BTC/alt relationship is inverse. IF this stays intact (it has changed a number of times) then it is reasonable to expect the alts to perform as money migrates out of BTC. At the moment I am looking at the alts like LTC, ETH for possibilities if BTC declines (IN THE SHORT TERM).
In summary, you must be open to anything. So many less experienced traders/investors expect TA methods and indicators to offer precision. This is not a lesson in engineering. There is no precision. The goal of analysis is to discover clues and weigh probabilities to see if potential outcomes make sense in terms of risk that we are willing to take. If the market presents an unanticipated scenario, we simply adjust. That's short term speculation. At the moment my plan is to completely avoid this market for any swing trade longs, and look to the alts for opportunities. The way I am interpreting this situation in light of the Segwit2X cancellation is this market is vulnerable to any bearish catalyst of a larger magnitude, like a Chinese government action or something along those lines.
"The crowd is always wrong at major turning points."
That's why my most bullish argument for BTC is that EVERYONE on trading view is forecasting this same drop. I mean.... it makes a ton of sense that we would drop down and test the bottom of our long term channel for a billion reasons in order to sustain medium term upward growth. However, 99% of traders on here forecasting that drop makes me feel like we are getting played and big institutional money is about to take our lunches.
Thanks for the quality analysis as always.
polskiboyy
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@Coledaman, Just look at the bullish sentiment on stocktwits for how ridiculous everyone sounds rn.
getbits
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@Coledaman, Yeah, it just seems too easy of a call to say BTC is going to drop. It seems completely logical, completely plausible so as usual, I expect BTC to do the opposite.
JamesBaxter
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@Coledaman, is trading view big enough to be called "the crowd"?
I cannot express how happy I am to have found you. Do you have a Twitter or YouTube I can follow?
Top-shelf analysis.
CovidScamIsAnIQTest
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CME futures market does not mean wall street will buy bitcoin, oppositely, they will trade futures instead of putting the fund in bitcoin as part of the market cap. That means, it is not necessarily good for bitcoin to grow market cap, but only means it is merely gaining some more exposures for the concept of bitcoin. Am I right? Thank you for your analysis.
andro24
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Thank you Marc!! Love your insights, the knowledge you share is so valuable. I follow 2 people for TA and you are one of them.
Can you please do a current chart on LTC? Would love to hear your thoughts on how to proceed. I am long from mid 50’s what to know when to take profit or how long to let it run.
Thank you for all you do!!
unhsv
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thx my good sir, i am always a willing student...
SafeGamble
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A much needed correction retesting $5700 is not unreasonable, but neither is a rally up to at least 8k. You say that "the crowd is always wrong at major turning points"... well, despite those bullish news, most people I know are calling for a correction. So there.
That's why my most bullish argument for BTC is that EVERYONE on trading view is forecasting this same drop. I mean.... it makes a ton of sense that we would drop down and test the bottom of our long term channel for a billion reasons in order to sustain medium term upward growth. However, 99% of traders on here forecasting that drop makes me feel like we are getting played and big institutional money is about to take our lunches.
Thanks for the quality analysis as always.