Another post just for tracking purposes. Thought it was neat how this fractal is playing out so closely so far. I didn't mention in my first post, but if we were to call this corrective triangle a pennant, then the measured move would actually give us a target around $10,000. Since the bear trend has shown signs of reversing, we could see pushes past previous downtrend resistances. $9,000-$10,000 target range for longs/opening short positions.
Note the high volume when wave (e) overthrows. Spiffy.
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Conflicted though...
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Jk, volume profile is exact opposite of what it should be. We should expect increasing volume off the head to the right shoulder, decreasing volume on the right shoulder's advance, and increasing volume (yet to confirm) as the right shoulder completes.
Game on.
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I would say a stop-loss for this trade is below $7500
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Looking good. Look for a spike in volume if/when the upper trend line breaks.
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New local high. Looking good. We should look for volume to really spike here.
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I know a lot of traders like to wait for breakout confirmation, but its hard to argue this risk/reward ratio when taking a position at the end of a triangle pattern. Upside being the average of the two targets (although I think 11k is definitely in the question here), and the downside is a stop-loss set below the bottom of the triangle.
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This fractal may be more important than we think. I zoomed out after drawing the above update and noticed the top trend line lined up with numerous historic support/resistance zones. If we break above it here, we will surely see a massive pop. However, if we fail to, we could fall to our recent lower, or make a lower one similar to what occurred back in April. This is a massive point of contention for BTCUSD.
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Wanted to post a quick update. We failed to break the resistance at $8700 and have pulled back. Looking at the 15 minute chart, I believe we may be in an extended 5th wave. Our best hope right now is that we just finished the 4th subwave of the extended wave 5. If that is true, then we cannot cross in the price territory of wave (1) so this is where my stop-loss is right now (below $7400). If we find support here, I think we will see a strong breakout.
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** $8400 Stop loss, not $7400 **
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First target reached.
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I still think $9250 and potentially higher are possible, but we are currently finding resistance at the 1hr 150 SMA. If this is the top, I would target $7500, $7000 and $6500 for buy orders.
Great post! I really liked this idea. I've been watching it closely and smiled as my sell order filled :)
WolfOfBinance
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So far spot on my man! Where do you see this going after that?
Manifested
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@WolfOfBinance, I have a couple posts on my bigger-picture analysis, but this is the one I am favoring right now:
BRRD
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BTC and alts... egging eachother on.
Likely to break up I reckon.
Manifested
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@BRRD, It definitely feels like some momentum is building, one way or another.
clintstel
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8400 sl you mean?
Manifested
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@clintstel, Yes! Sorry was trying to post quickly.
elvincontact
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Need more volume though
Manifested
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@elvincontact, We shouldn't expect it until we break the upper trend line. Or it'll confirm the breakout rather.
elvincontact
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@Manifested, cheers, any chance you can share your trading setup for this run? Are you bidding at the breakout after the resistance level or at the lower support?