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GLOBAL Bitcoin trend. Let's take a step back.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
Let's have a look at GLOBAL Bitcoin trend.
Bitcoin has been rythmed by bubbles. As you can see we are in the end of the third bubble. What does it mean? During the previous bubbles, Bitcoin lost between 70-90% from its ATH . A new cycle begin each time that bitcoin is facing the global trend line and a new uptrend with expanse of 1000%.

The point is that third bubble is certainly over, and we can expect a downtrend movement until the global trend. New ATH was 20.000 usd, so it can drop until 6000 to 2000.
Let's have a look at bubble scheme.

Each time the same pattern. Last big bull run during the last few weeks, then big drop, dead cat bounce and correction until trend line . It will be a perfect re-entry point, for growth with more than 1000%.

Concerning altcoins, we speak about Bitcoin bubble, but in fact, we could speak of CRYPTOCURRENCY bubble. Indeed the major altcoins follows Bitcoin and in longterm have more or less the same % of growth. However, you could think the situation is different this time, because some coins have more potential than Bitcoin , but in the fact ALL the coins are related to Bitcoin , and their dependance are really strong. So I don't think that a coin will increase during the bubble explosion.

It's important to be precise, and bubble doesn't mean, the end of Bitcoin of cryptocurrencies. The market has known huge growth for several years, and because it's promising and new tech, it will continue to growth during several years.
Finally, I would say, that it's just an opinion, and I can be wrong. Bitcoin could continue to growth instead of falling to trend line . It could also break the main trend line because it's a bit outdated. But as trader we make plan, and chose the most probable, and in this case, the most probable is correction till global trend line .
I know this idea is not relevant for day trade, but it's important to show that Bitcoin and the alts still have a beautiful futur.
GIVE ME YOUR OPINION!I would appreciate it!
评论: People tell me :
The 1st bubble didn't bounce on the global trend line, let me explain :
I mainly based my idea on the % drop of the previous bubbles. In fact, if the % is the same, BTC could hit the current global trend line. The 1st bubble bounced on a previous global trend line, then the trend line evolved due to the second bubble krach. If BTC bounces from the trend line we will know new ATH then correction on a new trend line less angled than the previous ones. It's correlated with the fact that the more money is injected, the potential of growth decreases. So keep in mind trend line are evolving, and the current one, will be invalided in the futur. Hope it's clear :).
I'm not pro at all! Just my humble opinion.
1st and 3rd bubble not bouncing on tl
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@synolog, Read all the idea, I responded on this question.
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stupid chart
+2 回复
@DukeDinhd6, Stupid comment
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I do think we recently experienced a bubble burst(ing), but I do have a question... from what I see, it does NOT appear that the first bubble even came close to receding to the global trend line. Given that, what do you think about the chances of following the same pattern with "bubble 3 and bubble 4" as we did with the "bubble 1 & bubble 2" cycle? For instance, a shorter retreat lasting 2-3 months (like bubble 1) that simply takes some steam out of it, then a huge bubble 4, then a retreat to the global trend line?
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@chwi03, I mainly based my idea on the % drop of the previous bubbles. In fact, if the % is the same, BTC could hit the current global trend line. The 1st bubble bounced on a previous global trend line, then the trend line evolved due to the second bubble krach. If BTC bounces from the trend line we will know new ATH then correction on a new trend line less angled than the previous ones. It's correlated with the fact that the more money is injected, the potential of growth decreases. So keep in mind trend line are evolving, and the current one, will be invalided in the futur. Hope it's clear :)
+1 回复
In the middle of many "new ATH" "bitcoin bullish" "bitcoin is dying" etc... Your analisis is the only one I do agree with.
I want to link you to this chart I made, which shows an interesting relationship between google search and bitcoin price. bit outdated but not too much.
https://imgur.com/IDbJA9K
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TonyFrohock internweb
@internweb, Opinion. (He's Wrong)
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