Still a bit of room before we totally give up

2018年11月18日

Many people are finally entering capitulation mode, with the recent sharp falls obliterating any hope that they may have had in getting their money back from their crypto investments. Strong support at around 5,800 is now resistance. Support at 5,500 is flimsy. The falls also signalled a convincing triangle breakout to the downside, with a target at around 3,000 - June 2017 levels.

So I have done a fresh analysis of the Bitcoin chart. And while it is 100% bearish with no suggestion that now is a good time to go long, it also offers some hope to those who are still in and waiting for a turn-around.

First - the long-term bullish trendline has not yet been breached. This will happen at the star, around 4,600.
Second - The falls are slowing. We can see the first two downtrend lines were quite steep. The latest one is much less steep and has actually been broken to the upside on several occasions.
Third - The MACD is in oversold territory and is turning up. It is a long way from giving a buy signal, but if it comes before the long-term bullish trendline is broken, we may have a long opportunity.

So if you're sitting tight, watch for the 4,600 level. It may possible be the turning point....