The Arithmetic Bull vs The Log Bear

The bearish primary degree count (on log scale) still satisfies more factors (i.e. volume trends, sentiment, proportionality, distance, time) than the bullish cycle degree count (on arithmetic scale) and I consider it the higher probability scenario.

Log scale shows that the rally to new all-time highs is not as big as it seems. Arithmetic scale shows how steep the trajectory has been, most comparable to the bubble rally to all-time highs previously. What followed was a two year decline which is inline with my big picture outlook that BTCUSD is working its way through a cycle degree expanding flat correction . A similar two year decline to at least the 200 level would satisfy this count perfectly.

At intermediate or minor degree a fourth wave is unfolding and we should expect a fifth wave rally which may be taking off as I type this. Once this high is in place, the next major move is a correction. Cycle degree wave IV or primary degree wave ((C)) of cycle II.
评论: The latest vertical rally could also be labeled as wave (3) of ((3)) which would support an even greater bullish short to intermediate-term rally.

Again, volume does not support this. Sentiment is optimistic and/or complacent.