Bitcoin continues its lack of progress gyrating around the 17K range mid point now for another week. Even after the NFP outcome which moved other major markets, Bitcoin continues to be uneventful. If best suggestion I can offer in this situation is do NOT force trades. There is always going to be nonsense forecasts, and unreasonable article or video titles to attract your attention. Do yourself a favor and focus on price: which means structure, and location.
Price structure is another way of saying "trend". The broader trend for Bitcoin has yet to change. The key levels to keep in mind here are the 18,500 range resistance and the 22K area resistance. UNTIL those levels are compromised, the structure continues to point to lower prices but there is NO WAY to know how low. The best we can do is account for bearish scenarios UNTIL price proves OTHERWISE. Markets are highly random and there is NO WAY to forecast where price will be more than a few weeks from now with ANY degree of accuracy (those you tell you otherwise are either clueless or have some other agenda).
Bearish scenarios mean potential break of the 15,500 area or 15K range low support. Other major supports are 12 and 10K. A major economic catalyst will be required to produce such an outcome. This often occurs when the market adjusts to expected news (no one sees it coming) or an unexpected outcome of a scheduled economic event. The event can affect other markets (like the S&P) and Bitcoin may be affected as well (high correlation).
As far as location, Bitcoin has been in a short term consolidation for months. Range like 15K AREA, range high 18,500 AREA. The midpoint is around the 16s to 17Ks (where it is NOW). I regularly remind my followers, signals in this location on the swing trade time frame are EXTREMELY RANDOM. Best suggestion; WAIT for conformation around a high probability location BEFORE assuming ANY RISK. That isolates mid to low 15Ks + setup for potential long or 18 to 18,500 area + setup for potential shorts. This is the SWING trade perspective. Day trade opportunities ARE reasonable even in these consolidations, but depend on a separate mental framework.
The most interesting thing I see now: the bond market may be showing signs of a trend reversal. While it is not proven yet, a bullish structure (as a result of NFP) is now present. Resistance levels need to be cleared before the argument can be made (see higher low on ZN1!). A shift in interest rates, if proven, points to a more optimistic future for the stocks (and Bitcoin) if the cost of borrowing money is going to get cheaper again. This is why I have been planning my speculative growth portfolio that has a 1 to 3 year time horizon. This is an inventory strategy and I have not made any specific suggestions as to stock or coin allocations yet.
Either way, do not be fooled by opinions of your own, or worse, of others. There is an "economic cycle" that markets tend to follow and it is in your best interest to know where we are in that cycle. One thing we can argue with confidence is we are much closer to a bottom than we are to a top. But that does NOT mean the bottom is in. Account for RISKs before ANYTHING else. Good defense wins this game, NOT home run profits.
Don't trade at all. Ever. We all know the risk justification just isn't there. Once fundamentals align and justification presents itself, we'll have missed our ideal entry. Just stay away.
AlanSantana
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@TaderTot, That's what I say... He always says "wait", "wait", "wait"... He has been waiting for years.
By the time he gives the go bitcoin will be a $444,444... At that point, he will say... "WAIT!!!!" it is about to drop!
lol.
JamesLeblancTheRealist
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@AlanSantana, At least he is not expecting BTC to pump to 400K every 3 hours.
LUC_Capital
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@AlanSantana, This comments shows that not only you missed the point of the post (RISK), but that you don't understand the different types of traders.
mrplowking
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@AlanSantana, a lot of truth in his posts... very little in yours. my opinion.
Houdini4k
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@AlanSantana, lol. Like I keep saying everyone skeptical about when the bull market will come, no one wants to Long the market until the bull run is here and they start crying oh! Why did I hesitate
Free_Loader
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Had you not waited, like Marc suggested, you would be (or already are) sitting on major losses. I’d rather take Marc’s advice than a random temper tantrum from an internet hillbilly looking desperately for followers of his channel.
Marc’s consistency has played out VERY well, and if you had taken his advice, you wouldn’t be sitting on losses from 30K, down to 20K, now down to 17K and who knows where things are headed. What if the BELIEF in Bitcoin fades, and people decide to leave it en masse, or Tether brings it down, or all the exchanges collapse. Those are all realistic contingency plans you have to acknowledge are in the process of unfolding or being introduced to the public.
@AlanSantana, one of these Fake Gurus, advised every Bitcoin dip was promoted as a “buy” because Bitcoin was going higher. Look at where we are a year later. I’m surprised you still have followers on your channel, or are these bots? Guess we’ll never know…
LUC_Capital
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@Free_Loader, Alan has been long on BTC since 45K, he quite clearly doesn't understand/doesn't want to understand the different levels of risk you can take on as a trader and the pros and cons.
simplejoe1
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@TaderTot, he didn't say don't trade. he said the high probability swing trades are at 15k for longs and 18.5k for shorts. makes a lot of sense from basic support/resistance considerations
TaderTot
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@Free_Loader I do agree with you, and with Mark also. I was just poking around with humor. No offense was intended. With BTC's sideways price action for weeks, I do find it difficult to keep to the conservative fundamentals. Also I'll back up Alan, he has have some excellent ideas and I appreciate his posts. The same for Marc's weekly Sunday night special. Thanks guys! Keep them coming. .