40 Day Consolidation into 'Black Swan'
已更新
I really only publish charts so I can say "I told you so" to IamNomad later on.
The general idea is that price quickly retraces 50% of the dump while consolidating on RSI = 50. Also, watch for cloud support to hold until the bearish TK cross (Red over Green). A daily candle close inside the cloud with a bearish TK cross would be a reliable signal the fractal has decided to break down.
The other important aspect of this idea: when technical & fundamental factors combines, a large price move occurs due to high momentum. A break of the fractal post-consolidation, in addition to a Bearish news event, would give price plenty of momentum to retrace down the entire consolidation period and then some (see:bitfinex hack on August 2nd).
Are these perfect comparisons at the moment? No
Is this super early on and probably won't pan out? Yes
Are there enough comparisons here to even bother considering this? Yes
Will the RSI load later on when you hit play? No
Can an event be considered a Black Swan if it is predicted ahead of time? No
Do I want this to actually break down again? No
Some dates to consider:
Valentine's Day - Feb 14th
Chinese traders love pumping or dumping around American holidays.
SEC Winklevii ETF Announcement - March 11th
This would obviously break the "buy the rumor, sell the news" paradigm, so it's more probable we dump on the actual announcement than before. But, a dump may occur in an attempt to shake out weak hands so that institutional money can fill their bids. Considering a "No" from the SEC likely has 0 effect on the market (based on past SEC decisions of the ETF), I'd like to weigh a "Yes" from the SEC more heavily. The ETF is important because, like the SPDR ETF did for Gold, it will likely bring BTC trading availability to traders who were not otherwise in the market. There are also other BTC ETFs in the pipeline in various parts of the world. Should the Winklevii ETF fail to get approval, odds are that one ETF somewhere eventually will be approved.
Other:
Segwit
Who knows if/when this will complete. I expect shenanigans in price action if/when it gets close to being adopted. Watch that metric here - bitcoincore.org/en/segwit_adoption/
People's Bank of China
Unlikely, but not impossible that China does finally decide to 'ban bitcoin'. Should this happen, expect mega dumps.
Trump ends the FED
Unlikely, but not impossible that Trump ends the FED quickly while coming to office sending digital currency through the roof or to the core.
Trump mentions Bitcoin in a Tweet
Unlikely, but not impossible that Trump tweets about bitcoin causing price to skyrocket from new user interest.
An exchange gets hacked
Always a possibility but I'm not sure if there are any exchanges that, if hacked, would actually move the price in a substantial way, other than the Chinese exchanges (OKcoin, Huobi, BTCChina).
The general idea is that price quickly retraces 50% of the dump while consolidating on RSI = 50. Also, watch for cloud support to hold until the bearish TK cross (Red over Green). A daily candle close inside the cloud with a bearish TK cross would be a reliable signal the fractal has decided to break down.
The other important aspect of this idea: when technical & fundamental factors combines, a large price move occurs due to high momentum. A break of the fractal post-consolidation, in addition to a Bearish news event, would give price plenty of momentum to retrace down the entire consolidation period and then some (see:bitfinex hack on August 2nd).
Are these perfect comparisons at the moment? No
Is this super early on and probably won't pan out? Yes
Are there enough comparisons here to even bother considering this? Yes
Will the RSI load later on when you hit play? No
Can an event be considered a Black Swan if it is predicted ahead of time? No
Do I want this to actually break down again? No
Some dates to consider:
Valentine's Day - Feb 14th
Chinese traders love pumping or dumping around American holidays.
SEC Winklevii ETF Announcement - March 11th
This would obviously break the "buy the rumor, sell the news" paradigm, so it's more probable we dump on the actual announcement than before. But, a dump may occur in an attempt to shake out weak hands so that institutional money can fill their bids. Considering a "No" from the SEC likely has 0 effect on the market (based on past SEC decisions of the ETF), I'd like to weigh a "Yes" from the SEC more heavily. The ETF is important because, like the SPDR ETF did for Gold, it will likely bring BTC trading availability to traders who were not otherwise in the market. There are also other BTC ETFs in the pipeline in various parts of the world. Should the Winklevii ETF fail to get approval, odds are that one ETF somewhere eventually will be approved.
Other:
Segwit
Who knows if/when this will complete. I expect shenanigans in price action if/when it gets close to being adopted. Watch that metric here - bitcoincore.org/en/segwit_adoption/
People's Bank of China
Unlikely, but not impossible that China does finally decide to 'ban bitcoin'. Should this happen, expect mega dumps.
Trump ends the FED
Unlikely, but not impossible that Trump ends the FED quickly while coming to office sending digital currency through the roof or to the core.
Trump mentions Bitcoin in a Tweet
Unlikely, but not impossible that Trump tweets about bitcoin causing price to skyrocket from new user interest.
An exchange gets hacked
Always a possibility but I'm not sure if there are any exchanges that, if hacked, would actually move the price in a substantial way, other than the Chinese exchanges (OKcoin, Huobi, BTCChina).
注释
guess that black swan came early...
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