Mount Gox was our 2 wave correction. This is Cycle wave 4. Mount Gox was a retrace of about .328. This correction MUST retrace more than that, because it has already hit a .328. We are looking at AT LEAST a .5 correction and possibly a .618 correction. Our C wave down will let us know just how far that will be, but guys I can promise you that you don't want to be in the market during that correction.
Everything is labeled on the chart. But where I get this from is the guideline of alternation. The Mount Gox correction was a flat 3-3-3-3-3 correction. So it's likely that this will continue as a sharp 5-3-5 correction and may not end up in an ABCDE correction, I just put that up there as a possibility. But we are looking at a retrace of AT LEAST to $10,000, and that should bounce us off of the 100 day MA like we always have in the past. More precisely I'm thinking somewhere around $9.5k. We can always retrace more to the .618 around $8k.
These are all likely scenarios. But I love risk, so I'm going to play these corrections. The best traders can make the most out of the worst.
Right now I think we are bound to get a flat correction upwards to our B wave. So I think it's likely that we get a resistance at the TWO hour 55 and with our previous low. Currently we are in a that might touch $15,203 and is BOUND to fall. On our , if you look at the , it is starting to slow down, This is where I re-entered to take advantage of altcoins during this . Then following that we should continue upwards towards resistance and that will finish our B wave. THAT IS WHEN YOU GET OUT OF THE MARKET AND WAIT FOR THE C WAVE TO FINISH. I really hope I am wrong, but guys right now I'm very certain this is going to happen.
I expect the duration of this correction to AT LEAST take us through the second week of January.
Good News: Bitcoin has another wave up towards at least $30k.
Bad News: After that i think we are going to hit a pretty long bear-market while that is our SUPER wave 5 and we will LIVE under the 100 Day MA.
Good News part 2: That should be a while from now.
Let's see how this goes, trade safe!
We should see 5 waves going up here, some people may confuse it with 5 positive impulse waves, but it is still a part of the correction. Our previous resistance should become our new support and and the 3 hr 55 EMA may serve as a resistance here now.
Some altcoins will boom during this C wave.
Lol, when I tell you guys I re-entered the market with a quickness. I need to learn to control myself but I am so addicted. Just to let you all know, after I said I was out, i re-entered 30 minutes later because I saw a reversal pattern. But here is the deal with bearishness. There is a chance that the velocity of this first drop isn't bad at all. I will like to see how to plays out. But I think our C wave is now done. I'm drawing different waves just to show perspective here, but there is always the chance we enter a longer bear market and Bitcoin just trades sideways for a while.
...I mean, come on, this was a year long bull run in a volatile market. It needs a break. The other thing is is that we are getting a bullish divergence on our DAILY MACD. Even though i think it will be short lived, it's showing good signs of another bullish run. Our Daily RSI is STILL in bullish territory. To me, if we stay in this area and don't hit the $8k range, then our next run for our cycle wave 5 will look pretty nice. If we exit that 40+ RSI level, then it's likely our bearish run may continue much longer. Let's play this thing by ear and be ready for the unexpected to happen.
I would like to update this one and maybe another idea that we have the possibility of seeing here. I like to keep an open mind for different perspectives of the possibilities that can come with corrections.
First wave count was on point! We're headed down. Likely to bounce off of 100 Day EMA. I will upload another picture of the daily chart so we can see where we are.
You tend not to worry when you know what's going on.
Dear Followers, Please look at this. History tends to repeat itself, I will also upload another picture of the daily chart. REMEMBER, the last post AND this one are the two MOST likely scenarios to happen here.
Right now, I'm just talking about the lowest of the lows. We have gone BELOW the 100 D EMA 4 times after BIG gains this year. I took the average of each distance below, and It leads me to $8,660, Which matches up with the first yellow line. Not looking so good.
BITCOIN ALERT: Dear lord baby jesus I hope I am wrong.
I think I'm wrong!! YES!! A reversal may be in play here, let's see what it does at these levels of resistance!
Alright, If it continues to hit these levels perfectly, then I think we can confirm this as our first big move up for Bitcoin. (This could still be part of an ABC correction). But hey, the unexpected tends to happen in this market, you just move along with it.
IF this is our first impulse wave up:
It CANNOT drop below that red line.
It MUST retrace to around that yellow line
it SHOULD hit around the area of the next green target (but doesn't have to)
What did we say was our critical support line that it cannot drop past? Th red one! It just showed it's wick through it last night (which can happen), but we are getting VERY bearish movement right now. We are failing to break through resistance and this run is just looking more and more like and ABC upwards pattern before we complete a full ABCDE correction!
IF we close well below that red line, expect a retest of the bottom line support that will likely match up with the lower fib level (Shouldn't drop past $12,000) here. Always stay on the balls of your feet guys! Bitcoin likes to push people over!!
So the good news is that we just passed our resistance level. We stalled at the yellow line that I placed and never quite went under the red line. But things have changed. I took another look at the previous first wave and it just didn't match my criteria. So I think we may still be correcting here. Regardless if we are correcting or not, we should see some corrections coming soon.
IF this is an impulse wave:
We CANNOT fall below the red line.
That is the most important thing here. The more I look at this, the more I say to myself "these do not look like impulse waves to me, these look like correction waves. They just aren't clear and concise like real waves are. So this red box is where we are going to look for signs of reversal (even if we get that 3rd impulse wave there).
So do we just go long Bitcoin and hope it goes up? Hellll nawhhh to the nawh nawh nahhh. We need more info and confirmation than this.
I think we can still be correcting here, EVEN if we hit $17,000 or more. Sometimes I have to listen to my gut (and common sense). My gut says that this doesn't look right, and my common sense tells me that a year long bull run of over 2,000% should not result in just a 3 week correction. Yes Bitcoin drives the market, but I think this is the year of the alts. Bitcoin has paved the way and opened the doors for everything else, now we can start to show the world that Bitcoin isn't the only thing worth something, and I think we're doing that. There are plenty of other better opportunities out here in the market that we can take advantage of.
It's starting to look more and more like impulse waves! I'm starting to get pretty optimistic on the reversal of Bitcoin to an uptrend!
So here is out Target 3 and reversal Box. Bitcoin usually does not have very strong 5th waves. It's a pattern I've seen over and over again. But I can feel this market consolidating and waiting for Bitcoin to finish it's run before alts start tearing it up again. So this process makes 100% sense to me. If we get to this target, and correct to the box below WITH signs of reversal for an uptrend. Then I will make a new Long Bitcoin post that we will use to take us step by step during the progress of Bitcoin's 5th wave!
I will also update with a trick for you day traders as to how to defeat this market during Big bitcoin runs when altcoins take a hit. It's makes the trading a bit riskier, but if you're good at it. You will make A LOT of money!
I always forget something...
There's that gut feeling.. So we broke our critical line of support. BUT, there is still a chance that my initial wave count was correct and that was just wave 5, here is what that would look like.
If stops at the green OR yellow line, there is a chance that this is a healthy correction to the impulse waves. BUT, if it crosses those lines and hits the red line, then this is DEFINITELY still a part of the correction. Remember, Wave 2 cannot retrace all the way below wave 1! This is wave 2, because we have completely 5 waves, that creates one bigger wave.
The 3 hour MACD has not slowed down and the RSI looks like it's lost support, I think we'll hit the oversold area.
Trust me, when we get Bitcoin down and confirm the first impulse wave, we are going to KILL this market!
Comment below on what you think is going on! Let's all help each other out.
Guys I think Bitcoin is still correcting!
So You can always find patterns in the RSI. usually the RSI can match patterns of the candle sticks, but it can give you even more information. So previously, we may have thought that Bitcoin was done correcting. Well maybe not! Remember when I said that first subwave didn't match my criteria, well that's because it wasn't a subwave! All we saw there was an ABC motive wave.
We are in a larger scale correction still and have yet to see Bitcoin's first impulse waves up.
I drew a sloping support from the first two bottom. We can possibly see the E corrective wave drop to the bottom and complete the M! BUT, E waves often fall short of the target. I am pretty positive however, that we are likely to see another fall here for Bitcoin to retest the most recent lows.
We are on Bitcoin's ASS! Trust me, I've got a few tricks up my sleeve that can help you traders hedge against Bitcoin's falls (and gains) that affect alts, and can turn 20% losses into 50% gains in opportunity cost (20% avoided losses with 30% potential gains). It doesn't always work out perfectly, but when you nail it, you feel good about yourself. When We see Bitcoin's first impulse waves up, we're going to make some hefty profits.