Please be advised that this is only an idea, so you are responsible for any losses yourself.
Dear followers,
In a bullish market, everyone thinks they are a good trader. It could be more difficult to make money in this market in the coming years. Don't get me wrong. In the long term, I am still bullish about the crypto market, but I do have my doubts about the Bitcoin. It would not surprise me that Bitcoin is no longer "The King" this year and that another crypto with better technology takes over the place. This could very well be Ethereum as an example. This chart looks better then BTC, but it could also be another currency. If bitcoin goes to $ 5000,- this scenario could happen within a few months. Personally, I don't have a long position in BTC since we broke support 1.
I know that a lot of people are bullish about BTC, no problem, but I'm not. As you can see, we are trading in a new channel downwards. In my previous ideas I mentioned strong support levels twice. After breaking strong support (1) we saw big red candle. I warned a second time in my previous BTC-idea that a close below support 2, might trigger a pull back towards $9900,- and it happened. Now, I see a lot of $20.000,- predictions of traders here again. Let's see who will be right. Our next strong support line is (A). We already tested it once during the crash, but we closed above it. A close below this support line (A). Will trigger a quick pullback towards the 200ma. (Around 5000). Before we will test our new support line (A), we might see a recovery towards $15.000. If this happens I will open short short positions again, like I did in my previous idea with a SL above the channel line. We will have a low risk then and a great profit potential. Even if support A holds.
Short: At the top of the channel line.
Profit targets: - Bottom of trend channel - 7500 (Just to secure profits) - 200ma (around 5000 now)
SL: Above channel line
I'm sorry for the Bitcoin lovers and good luck!
Please, follow and like for more trading ideas.
Questions? Feel free to ask and your feedback is welcome!
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What we see is a recovery as expected. Please be advised that there is room towards $15.000 before the pullback. Next resistance is 50ma.
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BTC is trading towards our support line again. Another test of support (3) and (a) might be possible and a close on the daily chart below will take us to our $5000,- target rapidly. If we bounce this support level, we still have much room to recover towards $15.000,-.
Than this: A lot of the bigger alt-coins are trading around strong support levels. (For example ETH, LTC and BTC) When the next two days will be red, this will almost automatically lead to a break of these support levels and another crash for the crypto market. It is good to be prepared for this scenario, to avoid big losses.
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There is still room for BTC to trade towards $14.200 - $14.600 levels. I'll open my short positions here.
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We are trading towards our first target.
Strong support (a) is broken. This might be a new strong resistance level for BTC.
Support 3 is a strong support since December. A close below this support will lead us towards the 200ma (green line) quickly.
At the moment, I've a small short position in Bitcoin.
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I'm sorry that I didn't post any updates. I'm very busy these first months of the year.
We reached our last target 10 days ago (see included chart).
What we see is a recovery from our last target. I'll post a new BTC (short) idea soon.
I appreciate your ideas. However I'm not convinced on this one. If you look at the weekly chart BTC has not dropped below the 20day MA in any of it's corrections. Usually that is the indicator of a reversal point. I believe we could retest that area ($9000-9100) again, however it is unlikely that we will fall below. If we do I am concerned about the entire market. You can see that this was a buy area for most people by the long wick from the last time we tested that zone the other day. Anyway I hope you're wrong for all of the cryptos. That being said, I do appreciate your insight and think that you have some very solid TA. Thanks for your hard work.
Trades999
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@sonoferik, Thanks for your analysis. I spotted the 20ma too and I agree with you that this is a strong resistance level. What I missed is that that were line (a) and (3) cross each other, is really precisely the level of the 20ma you mentioned and the low during the corrrection. I have to say that this will make this point a very strong resistance level and it strengthens your idea. This might be a very important day (were all points come together) for BTC. This is also the point where I secure my first profits. Another bounce of this level might confirm a continuation of the uptrend with line (A) as support line. On the other hand a break through this support will trigger the fall towards $5000,- quickly and maybe another crash, but I have to say that I don't hope that this will happen either. Let's say that we are prepared for both scenarios. Thanks for your insights, in this way we help each other to do our analysis even better. :).
sonoferik
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@jelmerrr, Thanks for the input. It is wise to be prepared either way. I have to begin breaking my portfolio into investments and trade sections and clearly distinguish between the two. This will allow me to close out my trade areas in event of strong bearish signs and let my core (investment) position ride. Right now most of my positions are w/ an investment strategy so I've disciplined myself not to touch them during corrections. However breaking the strategy up will allow me to take profits on highs and cut losses when needed to mitigate loss.
Thanks again for all your work. I've seen your analysis prove itself time and time again and I'm learning a lot from them.
Trades999
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@sonoferik, Good to hear you have a strategy. I also work with core positions but also with quick trades. Thanks for your comment :)
bambam320
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I understand your analysis and there is definitely some probability in it. I would like to mention that your downward channel on the chart looks like a huge bull flag. I'm not currently indeed yet that it will occur soon though.
Trades999
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@bambam320, Thanks for your comment! You are right that it has signs of it. Please also read my rely to sonoferik. :)
sonoferik
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Well bud.... I didn't think you would be right on this one. Good call. What brought you to the conclusion that we would see these lows when we were around 11k? What did you see on the charts? Thanks for the education
Trades999
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@sonoferik, Thanks, buddy I'm sorry for the late reply. I'm very busy this first months of the year...
Well, we broke two times a strong support level on 30-12 and 16-1. This was the sign for me to be bearish on BTC. and I'm still bearish. It was nice to see that we perfectly touched our last target (200ma). It wasn't 5000 anymore at that moment.
I'll try to post a new short idea today. :)
Younzo
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You didnt ruin any Party bro. Its called Bear Party !
henkes
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I agree with you. Since the crash I have not bought any crypto. It's the uncertainty and the fear of a bigger crush. I think BTC is going downhill. Unless everyone starts to buy for the purpose of raising the market, which is difficult to achieve. With one month of trade, my successive losses oblige me to watch to avoid mistakes. Thank you.