Its clear to me now that the big miners and whale investors are deliberately keeping BTC afloat each for their reasons:
- miners won't allow the price to go so much down so as to let their mining not be super profitable and capex paid off on their equitpment
- whale investors, well, thats obvious...
Each of these groups have very big pockets.
Just look at sell volume vs. pricing lately and then compare when folks are buying...! Also look at how clearly someone intervenes when MACD and RSI says sell but then magically suddenly price gets a kick of +5-8% in the 1 min chart. That's unreal.
So - taking that into account, I'd not short BTC ever again:
Rather when I get sell signals I'd liquidate long positions to take profit, wait out and see, then once discounted enough IF it was to go down probably to one of its retracements (2400? 1850 again?) then I'd go long... because the problem is when its not a rational market and is manipulated as I think it is there's no way you can use price action to figure out how deep is a pullback going to be (other than trying to reverse engineer how deep are the pockets of mining cos and whales?)...
This of course is different for altcoins where its probably mostly retail investors. And ETH is extremely correlated to BTC because the fortunes made on "forex" speculation in BTC cant easily be redeemed in big amounts as fiat currency: so having private equity investments via ETH and ICOs should normally be tempting for wealthy BTC holders.
It is a kind of juice ...haha ..sorry it is a joke.