SegWit Is Coming - What to Do

SegWit is coming! The markets become more and more unpredictable. What we should expect in the beginning of August? Nobody knows. We don't know the future and if someone tells you what will be - it's useless information. We just try to guess and spot possible price movements. We try to predict the markets in order to make some profit. We want to ride big waves. But it can be a trap for everyone who thinks in such way only. Before release of any important news the behaviour of traders in different markets like Forex, Commodities , Stocks, Crypto is the same. They all try to catch the great trading opportunities and think only about possible profit. But does it proper way? I don't think so. Because the great trading opportunities also give you the great probability to get problems. Buying or selling before the news you hope that the markets will move in your direction and make huge profit for you. But what will you do if the markets move against your trades? Will you be ready for this? It's a very important part of trading. You must be ready to any variant of price movements. If you are not sure that it's good time for trading, stay away from the markets. If you want to catch the possible upward movement after SegWit, just invest a part of money which you are ready to risk. If the markets move against your positions, you won't be so upset as if you invested all your capital. You must understand that unpredictable time it is not the best time for making money. It's better to focus on protection of your deposit. The markets will give you new trading opportunities in future and they will be much better than now. And you will need deposit for making money. Don't forget about it. But if in spite of this difficult trading conditions you decide to buy some coins or hold your opened trades, just be careful... and good luck!
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With "politics" and how BTC blockchain works in mind now that this is clear ... : I've come to the conclusion that though you're right in a purely rational and mechanical market -- price action on BTC isn't fully applicable:

Its clear to me now that the big miners and whale investors are deliberately keeping BTC afloat each for their reasons:

- miners won't allow the price to go so much down so as to let their mining not be super profitable and capex paid off on their equitpment

- whale investors, well, thats obvious...

Each of these groups have very big pockets.

Just look at sell volume vs. pricing lately and then compare when folks are buying...! Also look at how clearly someone intervenes when MACD and RSI says sell but then magically suddenly price gets a kick of +5-8% in the 1 min chart. That's unreal.

So - taking that into account, I'd not short BTC ever again:

Rather when I get sell signals I'd liquidate long positions to take profit, wait out and see, then once discounted enough IF it was to go down probably to one of its retracements (2400? 1850 again?) then I'd go long... because the problem is when its not a rational market and is manipulated as I think it is there's no way you can use price action to figure out how deep is a pullback going to be (other than trying to reverse engineer how deep are the pockets of mining cos and whales?)...

This of course is different for altcoins where its probably mostly retail investors. And ETH is extremely correlated to BTC because the fortunes made on "forex" speculation in BTC cant easily be redeemed in big amounts as fiat currency: so having private equity investments via ETH and ICOs should normally be tempting for wealthy BTC holders.
Love your charts, I am new to crypto's, rally appreciate the knowledge you provide!!
Dear Lavrov,
Is there any risk in keeping my deposit in exchange as a dollar before segwit? Thanks.
+1 回复
Appreciate these words, thank you.
Great advice Mr. Lavrov, thank you.
Hello DLavrov, I sent you a tweet. Could you email me on jonas.borchgrevink@hacked.com? I have a proposal.
thanks for your advices very important...i have all my equity on altcoins its a safe solution i think
what is segwit
It is a kind of juice ...haha ..sorry it is a joke.
If you plan on holding on to your BTC for August 1st then withdraw to your own wallet where you have the private key. That way you get BCC.
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