Following a 14,000% rally and overbought condition (green column) price action is now indicating a strong reversal is about to occur. Why?
1) Stochastic RSI crossing down 80 on the above 3-day chart. The Stochastic RSI is also crossing down on the weekly (not shown here).
2) Hanging man candle. This reversal candle is confirmed by:
a) A rally b) Sellers close price action lower into exhausted buyers. c) Following candle closes lower as sellers move in.
3) Money Flow Index (MFI) (the bottom oscillator) has become resistance following months of support. Time to get out.
The 21-weekly moving average (bull market support) is at $2.50 at this moment in time.
1st target is $2.50
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Price action likely to make another run for $7 area.
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The recently printed weekly candle (below) confirms the bearish reversal in price action with the 'hanging man' candle.
1st target is updated to $2.96 at this moment in time. However with Stochastic RSI under 20 price action could collapse straight through the 21-week moving average as it did in the past (black circles).
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Monthly candle for January prints a spinning top. In other words neither buyers or sellers know which direction to go.
If next month also prints a red candle a strong reversal in price action will follow. Wait for confirmation.
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Price action continues inside the ascending triangle formation. There is no trade to be made here until a breakout is confirmed.
On the 2-day chart below Stochastic RSI is point downward. No long position is possible while pointing this direction. However Stochastic RSI is a lagging indication.
If price action closes the day at $6.60 - go long.
If price action closes the day at $4.50 - get out fast.
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Both price action and RSI print a lower high on the 5-day chart below.
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$4.08 is a very important level - watch it carefully.
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This is the 10-day Bitcoin chart. Two points:
1) Price action has broken the 21-week EMA (Green line)
2) The candles, huge amounts of selling pressure when testing the 21-week as resistance.
In summary it tells me if you've no taken profits way back you're about to be taught a very painful lesson.
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The $4.08 level held and now makes this idea void thereby bringing 3-months of boring sideways price action to an end.
I'm wondering if you might revisit this and take another look at what I said back in January. Looks like Cel is in fact stuck in another sideways channel just like I reckoned back then. I'm also thinkin it'll slide sideways for another 1.5-2 months. Although there's so much capital flowing in right now that I'm only giving that a 55% chance. Of course that depends on where the RSI and MFI are sitting at the moment.
without_worries
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@OldTexasRed, Your time frame is accurate. RSI on the weekly remains at resistance and potentially until the month May. Furthermore Stochastic RSI is under 20, which means price action will continue to bleed.
In those ideas I study multiple time frames and performance against other assets, even if not shown in the original idea. For example Cel / BTC remains extremely bearish with scope for another 40% fall in price action.
without_worries
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@OldTexasRed, On the 2-day chart price action printed double top bearish divergence with lower highs in RSI.
without_worries
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@OldTexasRed, Watch for a bounce from here - that would be very positive for price action.
aaron0500
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You say it is likely to make another run for the $7 area, why? Seems like you are pretty bearish on this coin. CEL is a tricky one as it is not really a traded coin, more hodled on a very large scale. I see this as a $30-50 coin really, I just got in at $1, would love to see it excel to that area, its a great project, seems to good to be true really. I feel like we will consolidate around here for a while though.
without_worries
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@aaron0500, That was yesterday during the Bitcoin volatility, my impression at the time was sellers would have another opportunity to get out on a high.
The 5-day (below) is very bearish, which shows the hangman man candle in more detail. The $2.50 target will be achieved without much effort offering you a new opportunity to accumulate. The hard part will be watching all these other coins in the market take off whilst you ride Celsius down.
Alex_tv
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No such thing as exhausted buyers on this token. Celsius buys back ~390K tokens every week to pay interest, the buy orders were overwhelmed by profit takers for one week but I wouldn't expect the drop to continue much longer.
without_worries
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@Alex_tv, Not only are buyers exhausted, they've now capitulated. Down almost 40% so far. Looks like sellers are dumping tokens faster than Celsius can buy them.
OldTexasRed
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@without_worries, Both the RSI and Over Bought/Sold graphs seem to be dropping at a much faster pace than the coin price at the moment. As a result the current setup is reminding me of the drop that happened back in July 20', just magnified to a much larger scale. Only the MFI seems to be lagging behind. Any thoughts? Also this seems to be your first post in the CEL charts so welcome we need more analysts in here :)
Circled in black is July 20, at best there was a -20% swing during that month. Right now price action has fallen 40%. I’m not sure how those could be compared.
RSI & MFI are high at this moment and falling = very bearish. Let’s see what happens at $2.50. If that level does not act as support it be down to 75 cents and you’ll be able to pick up some cheaper coins.
My post on CEL is for no other reason than observing this asset is overbought and about to collapse. The project does not interest me, making money and keeping it does ;)