Daniel.B

Oil below Daily 200ma - Testing uptrend

NYMEX:CL1!   轻质原油期货
Hello Traders,

Oil             is at a true crossroads, testing whether the bull thesis shall be ruled correct.

We have had a daily close below the 200ma and as P.T.J says,“One principle for sure would be: get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average.”

With that being said, oil             has tested the uptrend multiple times and we are seeing some weakness across commodity markets as a whole. We are awaiting longer term short positions to trigger when all our filters are met, oil             being one of them.

If I was looking to enter bullish then oil             would have to close above YTD resistance at $55. That seems an unlikely scenario, but if oil             can manage a close above there even though the fundamental narrative does not align then that is a clear display of momentum being skewed to the upside and we are long for a short period. For any bullish positioning on a break higher the immediate resistance level to monitor would be $60.

If we break lower and out of the triangle then I would be more inclined to short with some key support areas where I will shave some of the position off. Key support areas: $37-$39, $26, anything after $26 then I just hold on to the trend until it stops and reverses thus trailing me out of a position.

Please see the linked "related ideas" for some more info or proxy to the oil             trade which has already begun. I also tend to update thoughts and technical analysis more often on my twitter page. Feel free to follow me: https://twitter.com/DannyB_NYC


Weekly Bar Chart: Wedge Continuation?
交易开始: Triggered into a short position.

Trade smart, and with a plan.
评论: Current Fibonacci Levels *Daily Bars*


Still trading well below Daily 200ma = Bearish Bias.
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