As you can see there are two options for Crude Oil price.
Option #1: The red line represent a continuation of the Bears controlling the CL market. For now we are just testing the purple Trend Line.
SELL ON BREAK
Option #2: If the purple Trend Line will hold, we will probably test the lower side of the yellow box area above us.
BUY-WHEN BREAKING THE YELLOW BOX
** FYI**
There is a big Bear Flag from the 30/09/14.
And if you will look carefully you can see a small Bear Flag starting from the 06/07/15.
评论
vlad.adrian
⋅
SO let me see if I get this straight, crude oil can go either up or down right?
Kumowizard
⋅
You forgot one option! It can stay as choice 51 USD! :-)
vlad.adrian
⋅
Ye, sure it's possibility, but the author didn't mention it... so u think it can go up, down, or sideways? is that what you mean?
Kumowizard
⋅
Exactly, that's what I mean. From this perspective it can go up, down or sideaways, with 33.3333 % chance on each scenario!
vlad.adrian
⋅
I don't usually agree with other traders, but I think you might be right on this one...
AndyM
⋅
If the moderator who is part of this conversation considers it fruitful and value-added, then please keep going.
vlad.adrian
⋅
just a friendly joke, that's all.
AndyM
⋅
That's exactly what the market wants you to do: it will break the trendline, you will sell on break (so as everybody else will) and then it will reverse.
smitheric1970
⋅
Exactly. I don't think it will take much either Andy, was original hoping for 48 but don't think we'll break 50. I'm thinking we will see a bounce back to the 56.51 level. Over the next few weeks, I'm assuming we will see a slight markdown in DX, markup in S&P, markup in Canadian dollar. Then we'll be even closer to 'potential' rate hike and a crash in S&P, spike in DX and new lows in Crude.
tst
⋅
currently fundamentals with supply etc suggest option 1. im looking at the same level because of the 61.8 fib pull back from the rally of the low. break here and its just a dead cat bounce to lower low.