Above is the month chart of WTI with log scale price. We can see the fibonacci retrace level from 9.75$ to 147.27$. The 0.764 position is 42$. This is a signal of the bottom of WTI at the moment. Another indication is the Gan fans from 33.2$ at 2009, the 42$ is at 8/1 angle. The next resistance level will be near 62.44$.
well all the support levels have failed and we're in the very severe down channel. What would be the next technical support level in your opinion? 33.20 looks like it's too far, but hey that's less than $10 and we have already fallen more than $60 from peak!
DanTrader2000
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this has proved to be eerily accurate, a pity I only just spotted your charts now! Your other EW chart predicting a turn in US Crude on 7th August will be very interesting to watch. I cannot envisage the technical aspects of the oil price chart overtaking the fundamental analysis of the market? Considering all of the bearish signals ie
- Iranian and Iraqi oil being added to the market,
- problems with China s/market,
- European QE and Euro weakness,
- $$ rate increase and $$ strength forcing crude prices lower, to name but a few external factors. Then add in traders, hedge finds and investment banks all talking the price down, I cannot see how it could be possible for there to be a bounce from Aug 7th, and am honestly expecting WTI to hit $42 or below, UNLESS there is some huge turnaround in the markets,
e.g.
- Saudis say they/Opec are cutting back on production, or
- a huge drop (say 500k bopd) from the US, or
- ISIS attack on oil facilities.
I will be watching your charts very closely from now on!!!
zhipengcfel
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Thanks for your opinion. I agree with the fundamental analysis. But the increase of rig count might show the oil was bottomed. If oil is still bearish after August 12th (from other time cycle), then oil will go lower. I will not go long before it is confirmed.
smitheric1970
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Wow, nicely done
alansdu
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Nice prediction!
zhipengcfel
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Target achieved
coolingla
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zhipengcfel,
Some chartists believe USOIL at $42 is not the bottom, but then end of wave 3 down, and we are in wave 4 up. Next they predict a final wave 5 down that will take USOIL down to $35 to $40.
What's your take on that?
zhipengcfel
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For the monthly chart we seems in a large triangle which might be the reason why we just have three waves down to 42. I still believe 42 is the bottom.
mohamedrussel
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dear do you mean we can buy from 51.80 until 62
or what can you explain
zhipengcfel
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Please pay attention to daily chart 100 SMA resistance. If it breaks, the price will go up to 62.