Elliot wave analysis on oil (2015-08-08)

NYMEX:CL1!   轻质原油期货
Time target:
I published idea last week that oil is forming three half-moon pattern from small to large. The first one takes 16 days. The second one takes 48 days. The third one will be very likely taking 96 days which means it will complete until August 7th.
 We can get the similar result from fib time analysis which shows it will complete around August 12th. The period for oil rising from 42.02 to 62.55 is 49 days. The period for consolidation before this bearish down is 49 days too. The period for this bearish will be 49 days by August 12th.

Price target:
The oil has filled the gap which formed at March 20th. It will touch the pitchfan 0.75 support line soon.

Wave pattern:
From EW theory oil is in wave 5. It will probability complete the 5 waves down soon.

Trading suggestion:
No confirmation, no trading. Wait the confirmation of up move with large volume . If the volume of up is few, please keep cautious.
Comments ans suggestions are welcome!


Please give zhipengcfel a thumb up for the effort! I just did.

His analysis on OIL has been the most balanced on TradingView.
+3 回复
zhipengcfel coolingla
Thanks for your encouragement. I will try to illustrate my analysis and what i am thinking better.
+3 回复
In this prolonged bear market for oil, the oil stocks can be used as a leading indicator.

The actions of some oil stocks in the last few days have indicated big money are back into selected oil stocks. That means oil will rise soon too.
+1 回复
Great work! I have a question in which I hope you can answer. Elliot mentioned a phenomena in the market called the half moon. Was this a pattern and is this valid under the wave principle according to your opinion? Plus the chart above although old does it relate to the half moon mentioned by Elliot. Thank you.
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