It’s Saturday night here is Melbourne, Australia… The house is quiet, the kids and wife are asleep and I’ve just finished watching the Big Short (9/10 – Highly recommended). Now is the perfect time to analyze the charts.
We have another huge week coming up, and while the focus will be on David Cameron and his mates (GBP trades), let’s not forget that USD and JPY trades still carry the most weight in this business.
USD will be making some huge moves over the next week or two and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is giving us a clue.
(1) We have a Triple Top that may signal a LH. However, if price breaks up, then we are looking for price to consolidate at the LH mark as indicated on the chart.
(2) If this Triple Top holds this week (Week commencing 22/02/16), then we have a pretty clear signal that the index is moving down to create another LL. If this is true, then there is very strong possibility 15370 will be broken very soon (Maybe this or next week?).
However I think this triple top probably won’t hold and we will move up into the 17400’s.
For this reason, I don’t think it is a good idea opening any significant long USD positions in the short term.
As much as the BOJ and the Karuda mafia are seeking to devalue JPY, I don’t see any chance in hell of them achieving their targets [No matter how much they think QE will do the trick] – Look at USD/JPY weekly for clues. At one point I thought JPY trades were going to go up (JPY devalue) as it looked like USD/JPY was going to break up, however I was wrong, and now it’s clear that buying JPY appears to be the smarter move.
Hard to imaging a bullish DOW if USD is bearish and JPY bullish (as you expect).
AndrewFx2020
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Hey Kevin... What I'm also looking at is a short on AUDJPY. If the LH that I think may happen occurs, then this will time nicely with the top of the channel.
KevinT
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Thumbs up
cooney_s
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Nice analysis, love the AC/DC reference and tag! Many songs come to my mind too and used in my rhetoric when trading.