It looks like the dollar-index is topping this year. I smell a plunge in 2016, but I could be wrong. That is something that must be said ofcourse.
All fundamental traders are waiting for a rate hike but there won't be any. Not soon, at least the dollar has to meet 80's for a hike. That is why it might spike in december followed by a collapse.
My chart shows me a potential Head and Shoulder pattern could be formed here. Very early to tell but I think the rsi trendlines also show more up to come on the weekly chart.
评论
timwest
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"It looks like the dollar-index is topping this year. I smell a plunge in 2016, but I could be wrong." .... You didn't graph a plunge in 2016....
ElPatron.Y
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The head in 2016 is the plunge, did you see the pattern i have drawn roughly?
ElPatron.Y
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It all depends on how fast it rallies, to the upside. If it hits the channel resistance it could fall earlier if the rally is more powerfull. If it rallies slower it has more room up..
ElPatron.Y
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The market changes his mind, so do I.
eskgroup
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Thank you for sharing this. I support your view 100%! I predict at least 5 years of USD inflation...strictly based on global capital outflows..
ElPatron.Y
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Anytime eskgroup, I hope it helped you. The dollar will top soon and from there great opportunities will come in.
DJC
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if you negate Black Monday you could re-calibrate this to a bearish pennant. The opposite can be clearly seen on EU.
I should warn though that I wouldn't be surprised we see a pop down before Christmas as more people realize and price in the fantasy economics at play with the fed.
Also consider we generally move to a Risk On scenario leading up to Christmas, take a look at this 30 year seasonal chart of USD for instance, we see a dramatic Risk On play up to the December.
If you consider the failed rate hike being priced in, we could see longer seasonality come back into play and negate the last few years bull running, which is my opinion.
It seems the sentiment of most is what you predict however - A rise in USD to Christmas followed by the large reversal.
All I am saying is be prepared for the poopoo to hit the blades a bit earlier than expected and dont get caught without toilet paper.
Peace,
Djc.
ElPatron.Y
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Thanks for commenting your view.
IvanLabrie
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Interesting seasonal charts.
I'm open to both scenarios, right now I have technical long signals in eurusd, so I'll take them.
We'll know soon enough, I believe this weekend is decisive for the dollar.
And negating Black Monday or any bar, is not something I'd do...too sharp a move to be ignored.
DJC
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Sorry first sentence should be Bullish Pennant of course :)