Oil consensus seems to be that it is expected to continue it's bullish run after the narrative behind the "long oil" trade completely does a complete reversal looking to surpass the highs...?
I'm not sure about everybody else but crude is banging around its daily 200ma and testing the bullish uptrend it's been on for a year or so for the 5th time. It would not surprise to see a break of the uptrend.
Another concerning factor is the emotional attachment to the trade by talking heads and over-levered retail and professional managers. Raoul Pal recently tweeted a bearish comment on oil targeting $20 and it seemed as if he had "insulted oil long's mothers... A sign of being overly emotionally attached to a trade".
Either way although OPEC may cut. The narrative for the bear market we experienced in oil was credited to U.S. shale production. If that was the case then can someone tell me how oil can continue going higher if production is now trading back above its 50day average....
After trading macro for some years I came to notice that price will usually precede the fundamental data and this seems to be the case with the "bullish" oil narrative. In any case, I'll trade the break whichever side it is (long or short) and trade accordingly.
I'm not sure about everybody else but crude is banging around its daily 200ma and testing the bullish uptrend it's been on for a year or so for the 5th time. It would not surprise to see a break of the uptrend.
Another concerning factor is the emotional attachment to the trade by talking heads and over-levered retail and professional managers. Raoul Pal recently tweeted a bearish comment on oil targeting $20 and it seemed as if he had "insulted oil long's mothers... A sign of being overly emotionally attached to a trade".
Either way although OPEC may cut. The narrative for the bear market we experienced in oil was credited to U.S. shale production. If that was the case then can someone tell me how oil can continue going higher if production is now trading back above its 50day average....
After trading macro for some years I came to notice that price will usually precede the fundamental data and this seems to be the case with the "bullish" oil narrative. In any case, I'll trade the break whichever side it is (long or short) and trade accordingly.
