My last publish from yesterday analyzed a bull flag on the 1 hour chart - it broke out last night. This chart is the 4 hour, but as you can see, that long-term trend line dating back to December is creating issues for it rising any higher.
I think this morning's non-farm payroll and then Powell's speech will determine if ES and SPY have enough gas in the tank to punch thru that trend line. But, who knows how the market will react in these illogical times. Rational is not in anyone's vocabulary as of late...
I see 2 options:
1) Non-farm smashes expectations and Fed cuts 25 BP... MAYBE!! Another non-farm smashing could send signals that a rate cut is not needed at all.
2) Non-farm meets expectations, or is slightly below it, and Fed cuts 25 BP. I do not see a 50 BP cut regardless of non-farm payrolls. And the market, I believe, is looking for a 50 BP cut... They may cry like babies when they don't get it.
Again, as always, I could be way off in my analysis. I do not claim to be Warren Buffett... But I think my guess is as good as any right now in these volatile markets. With that said, I'm still neutral until, Powell speaks this afternoon.
I think this morning's non-farm payroll and then Powell's speech will determine if ES and SPY have enough gas in the tank to punch thru that trend line. But, who knows how the market will react in these illogical times. Rational is not in anyone's vocabulary as of late...
I see 2 options:
1) Non-farm smashes expectations and Fed cuts 25 BP... MAYBE!! Another non-farm smashing could send signals that a rate cut is not needed at all.
2) Non-farm meets expectations, or is slightly below it, and Fed cuts 25 BP. I do not see a 50 BP cut regardless of non-farm payrolls. And the market, I believe, is looking for a 50 BP cut... They may cry like babies when they don't get it.
Again, as always, I could be way off in my analysis. I do not claim to be Warren Buffett... But I think my guess is as good as any right now in these volatile markets. With that said, I'm still neutral until, Powell speaks this afternoon.