monkia

THE BIG FLIP - ETHUSD on the back of ETHBTC

BITFINEX:ETHBTC   以太坊/比特币
If you have been following my post ETHUSD - Q1 2018 best buy             backed by history and ETHUSD to enter large leg 3 impulse driven by reversal on ETHBTC , you'll see that I am very bullish ETH because of where I see it trading vs BTC             over the coming 90 days. I tend to go to BTC             during corrections to make it easier to manage and it has historically performed best out of all the coins during corrections. This time I kept the balance between ETH and BTC             about 50/50 and some cash. I am therefore waiting for the right time to move back over to ETH. You'll see from my post BTCUSD - A wall of resistance gradually being knocked down that I think we are decreasing the likelihood of BTC             retracing to $6k. I am therefore reviewing when I should start swapping my BTC             to ETH.

The main question I am asking myself is whether we are still in wave 3 (up to around 0.19) or entering the corrective wave 4 (down to around 0.08). More details here:
ETHUSD growth from ETHBTC history. Have we completed wave 3?

We are currently in a very interesting place. On the larger timeframe ( TM             ) we are in a bull run and are creating a bull flag . On the shorter TF, since 1 Feb, we are in a correction creating a bear flag .

My plan
Whilst I have a bias on ETHBTC medium term, I do not want to guess if we are in wave 3 or wave 4. Usually the longer term horizon wins out, but that doesn't mean it will this time. So I wait for the trend to be confirmed.

Still in wave 3
- We move up from here, rejecting the bear flag . I will enter a trade assuming we will continue the upward leg and eventual breakout of the bull flag . The target for this, based on the height of the flag pole, would be my wave 3 target from my separate historic analysis here. This would also coincided with the magic flipping figure of 0.173 which would probably be a good place to retrace in wave 4. I love it when TA converges!

- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag but quickly find support on the diagonal trend line . I will enter a trade at the bounce back up at around 0.095.

In wave 4
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag and either find support at the 1D 50EMA and 0.382 Bull (0.087) or the 0.5 Fib of Bull 2 (0.08). I will enter a trade at a bounce on one of these levels.
评论: Looks like we are heading towards one of these two options, most likely the 1D 50EMA:

Still in wave 3
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag but quickly find support on the diagonal trend line . I will enter a trade at the bounce back up at around 0.095.

In wave 4
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag and either find support at the 1D 50EMA and 0.382 Bull (0.087) or the 0.5 Fib of Bull 2 (0.08). I will enter a trade at a bounce on one of these levels.
评论: Update posted here
I am looking at potential scenario(s) that *might* unfold that might allow me to consider a trade against my plan. These are my personal opinions and not advice. Please do your own research and plan trades that work for your plan.
@monkia - we broke down retracement level 0.08. Eth still looking weak. Doesn't this invalidate proposed wave count? Looks Eth doesn't want to follow historic trends. Maybe because main money flow into btc. What's your view please
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monkia mpastas3
@mpastas3, according the EW theory, the wave count is not invalidated until wave 4 over laps with wave 1 (0.046). Update coming shortly...
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I think Ethereum will have serious problems breaking over $1500.
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LogicalDeduction LogicalDeduction
@LogicalDeduction, Ehhhmm... I think it willl break over it but it should take a stop there first. What do you think @monkia ?
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monkia LogicalDeduction
@LogicalDeduction, thank you for sharing your thoughts. If ETHBTC does not continue its upward leg, I would agree with you. Looking back last year, it took ETHUSD three months to attempt and then fail to break the its previous ATH at 400 before finally breaking it two months later when ETH started to bottom out against BTC (June, Sept, Nov). However, if ETHBTC continues up, I see ETHUSD breezing through 1500 with little resistance, like it did the physiological levels at 500, 900 and 1000. This is the reason I am so focused on what ETH (and other coins) are doing relative to BTC.
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no advice requested bro but from your perspective how long do u think ether price will be reasonable. I know we can't time the flip. But I'm thinking could be three months or could be a year but any longer than that maybe we might reassess. I'm confident ether won't die. But make your own decisions guys. Really I want a lot of ether but my timeframe for accumulating a lot is probably six months or more. U still looking at 90 days for big changes? NO ADVICE ONLY IDEAS OF COURSE
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@qdoc, I'll have more conviction in my thoughts once I have more certainty about whether we are in wave 3 or 4. If it is wave 3, I am working on the basis that history will repeat itself and we will see 20-30 days of growth (to complete wave 3) then 10-15 days of contraction (wave 4) before a final push to wave 5. All in, I am thinking 90-100 days from here to complete this super cycle 5th wave. Wave 5 can be shorter than wave 3 so it might end shorter. Wave 1 was shorter than wave 3, so given EW theory, that 'allows' wave 5 to be longer.

I'll adjust my view as we move through the coming period, but unless the market tells me otherwise, I feel most comfortable trading based on what the the two historic moves seen in Super Cycle wave 1 & 3 show me.

If history repeats itself we would then see a long period (170 days) of contraction in ETHBTC price and/or we might enter an ABC or start a new set of 5 impulse waves. However, this doesn't mean that ETHUSD will go down in this period. It could be when BTCUSD price explodes to the $50k I have previously forecast and so ETHUSD holds or increases but drops relative to ETHBTC.
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qdoc monkia
@monkia, thanks man very detailed not sure I understand it all but will go through very carefully. Thanks once again.
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@qdoc, a little confusing because we are in a Super Cycle wave 5 (2016 wave 1, 2017 wave 3, 2018 this wave 5). Then within this current Super Cycle Wave 5, we are debating if we are in the 3rd or 4th wave....
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qdoc monkia
@monkia, ;-)
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