We have seen a lot of fake breakouts with ETH (bearish flags, bull traps whatever you want to call them).
A few things we can do to avoid them.
1. Always follow the
BTCUSD
trend. Whether we like it or not, ALL cryptos are affected by the short term movements of Bitcoins. This is the truth. Looking at the BTC/USD chart we can see we are in a bear market and the descend follows a channel like pattern where prices are bouncing off wall to wall. Yesterday, the upper wall was hit and the downward move began at 9000 USD. As a result, ETH, BCH and many others began going down as a result and the recent uptrend quickly became invalidated
2. Fibonacci lines. Dragging a FIB retracement between the highest and lowest points over a period will create a few lines inbetween which will act as both support and resistance. The price typically bounces off these for a little bit and if these lines are broken you can expect a continuation in a certain direction. DO NOT rely 100% on this. This indicator is not sufficient for an exit/entry point, but it can be used to reinforce a stop-loss point or validate some other pattern
3. Short vs Long time frames. DO NOT be fooled by an uptrend on the short term. Long term trends are STRONGER than short term ones. We are in a bearish market and let's assume the price reaches a resistance point observed on the daily candles and at the same time it breaks through a short term fibonacci level or you see a 1 hour bullish fractal. In this case, it is MUCH more likely that the price will bounce of the long term resistance and continue downwards and invalidate your short term analysis.
A few things we can do to avoid them.
1. Always follow the
BTCUSD
trend. Whether we like it or not, ALL cryptos are affected by the short term movements of Bitcoins. This is the truth. Looking at the BTC/USD chart we can see we are in a bear market and the descend follows a channel like pattern where prices are bouncing off wall to wall. Yesterday, the upper wall was hit and the downward move began at 9000 USD. As a result, ETH, BCH and many others began going down as a result and the recent uptrend quickly became invalidated 2. Fibonacci lines. Dragging a FIB retracement between the highest and lowest points over a period will create a few lines inbetween which will act as both support and resistance. The price typically bounces off these for a little bit and if these lines are broken you can expect a continuation in a certain direction. DO NOT rely 100% on this. This indicator is not sufficient for an exit/entry point, but it can be used to reinforce a stop-loss point or validate some other pattern
3. Short vs Long time frames. DO NOT be fooled by an uptrend on the short term. Long term trends are STRONGER than short term ones. We are in a bearish market and let's assume the price reaches a resistance point observed on the daily candles and at the same time it breaks through a short term fibonacci level or you see a 1 hour bullish fractal. In this case, it is MUCH more likely that the price will bounce of the long term resistance and continue downwards and invalidate your short term analysis.
